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toffee · 2023年05月01日

没看明白

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NO.PZ201511190100000406

问题如下:

Patel’s comment in his risk tolerance questionnaire regarding the Private Wealth Investment Committee fails to recognize which bias?

选项:

A.

Social proof.

B.

Confirmation bias.

C.

Gambler’s fallacy.

解释:

A is correct.

Social proof is a belief in which individuals are biased to follow the beliefs of a group. The structure of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee indicates that they may be susceptible to a social proof bias. The committee meets to discuss and debate each security and then votes on which will be approved. Committee members may wrongly favor the judgment of others, often without being fully aware that they are doing so. The process of reaching a consensus will usually narrow the range of views. If a group decision process does not encourage private information held by individual committee members to be shared fully with others before a decision is made, the decision may fail to combine the collective wisdom of the group. There is no evidence that this committee encourages private information.

备注:这道题出的不太好,原版书给的答案A。Patel“一旦知道investment committee支持了某项投资,他的风险容忍程度会显著提高”,这句话既反映的是confirmation bias。social proof和herding是同义词,羊群效应,是一种从众的行为。Gambler's fallacy是赌徒谬误,比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面,认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高,但事实上,抛出反面的概率仍为50%,Patel没有这样的表现。不用纠结选项。

这道题我以为是选择没有体现出的偏差。那从委员会确实是social proof ,从个人确实是confirmation 。那没有体现出的却是赌徒效应啊。看了其他的问题讲解,那是不是以后不管看到啥样的背景,不管三七二十一,只要是投资委员会,就是social proof?题目的背景说的是,只要投委会认定,投资者的风险容忍度就会提高,那应该问是存在什么样的偏差?这当时是social proof。那什么叫存在偏差,还没识别?这是啥逻辑?照这样,无论识别不识别的出,那都是social proof啊,那题目fail有啥意义?

2 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2023年05月04日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


就知识点而言,我觉得关于投资委员会的偏差 是 social proof 我没有任何问题,真的很担心的就是在考试中出现这种类似的措辞,容易让人想多,多揣摩,真不知道这会不会是陷阱。到底是多想想还是就是照搬 很难拿捏那个度。严谨仔细的人因为多想而做错,反而那种看到投资委员会 就选social proof 就对了。因为真题里真的有这种感觉的题,明明就是会,但是就是会选错。

我理解同学的担心哈,只是就从行为金融本身的学科特点来说,其实考查的是比较常规的

再加上学科本身的内容,几乎都是定性理解,不像定量计算,答案对错分明

所以出题人为了保证题目的严谨,会尽量保证大家对题目的理解没有异议

所以咱们把握好学科的重点知识点原理即可,别被一道出的不好的课后题,影响了咱们备考心态和效率哈,同学加油

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

王琛_品职助教 · 2023年05月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


1

同学好,这道题的出题人没有想那么多哈

所以建议我们在做题时,也不需要想那么多

这道题不是多么好的题目,所以不值得我们投入宝贵的时间精力分析研究

2

关于这道题的解题思路,及备考建议,我之前总结过:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/113787

请同学再参考一下

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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