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Lance · 2023年04月18日

请问老师,为什么是算单尾呢。什么情况下会用到双尾呢?是不是所有求盈利的情况都会用单尾呢。

NO.PZ2015120604000178

问题如下:

BIM is a well-developed public company and its market capitalization growth rates over past few decades are normally distributed.The population has a mean of 10% and a standard deviation of 5.4%. An investor wants to figure out the probability that BIM's average capitalization growth rate will over 12.32% in the next three years (all the data are monthly statistics).Which of the following option is most accurate?

选项:

A.

0.5%.

B.

1%.

C.

5%.

解释:

A is correct.

It is appropriate to use the central limit theroy to calculate. Standard error=5.4%/36\sqrt {\rm{36}} P(X>12.32%)=P(Z> (12.32%-10%)/0.009)=P(Z>2.58). So the corresponding probability is 0.5%.

请问老师,为什么是算单尾呢。什么情况下会用到双尾呢?是不是所有求盈利的情况都会用单尾呢。

3 个答案
已采纳答案

星星_品职助教 · 2023年04月19日

同学你好,

本题不是假设检验的考点,没有单双尾的概念。

题目要计算的是BIM's average capitalization growth rate大于12.32%的概率(the probability that BIM's average capitalization growth rate will over 12.32% ...),也就是P(X>12.32%)。这个条件决定了只计算大于的情况(即提问中的“单尾”)。

星星_品职助教 · 2023年04月19日

@ Lance 可以参考M6中这个视频的位置。

简而言之,如果是假设检验的考点,则看备择假设。“大于”或者“小于”的情况都是单尾检验,“不等于”是双尾检验。

再补充一个常见的点,如果是置信区间(confidence interval),则在数量科目中,查表时都按照“双尾”来处理

Lance · 2023年04月19日

谢谢老师。  那单双尾概念哪里章节回看呀。麻烦啦

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