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𝒜𝒩𝒥𝒜 安雅🎃 · 2023年04月17日

RI model makes no assumptions about future earnings是啥意思?

NO.PZ2023032701000069

问题如下:

Mendosa and Raman have a discussion about other approaches that might be appropriate for valuing PRBI’s stock. They make the following statements:

Statement 1—Raman: Because PRBI’s management is actively seeking opportunities to be acquired, the guideline public company method (GPCM) would be most appropriate. It establishes a value estimate based on pricing multiples derived from the acquisition of control of entire public or private companies. Specifically, it uses a multiple that relates to the sale of entire companies.

Statement 2—Mendosa: We could also value PRBI using the free cash flow to equity (FCFE) model. But in order to support its rapid growth, the company is expected to significantly increase its net borrowing every year for the next three to five years, and during those years, it could have a significant dampening effect on the company’s FCFE and thus a lower value for its equity.

Statement 3—Raman: I agree. The residual income (RI) model, also called the “excess earnings method,” does not have the same weakness as the FCFE approach because residual income is an estimate of the profit of the company after deducting the cost of all capital: debt and equity. Furthermore, it makes no assumptions about future earnings and the justified P/B is directly related to expected future residual income.

In regard to the discussion on other approaches between Mendosa and Raman, which of the following statements that they make is most accurate? Statement:

选项:

A.

1

B.

3

C.

2

解释:

Statement 3 by Raman is most accurate. The residual income model, also called the excess earnings method, does not have the same weakness as the FCFE approach, because it is an estimate of the profit of the company after deducting the cost of all capital: debt and equity. Further, it makes no assumptions about future earnings and dividend growth.

助教你好,李老师在经典题里面对于statement 3是讲解了“profit of the company after deducting the cost of all capital: debt and equity”,我对这话没疑问,我的疑问是statement 3最后一句话 “it makes no assumptions about future earnings and the justified P/B is directly related to expected future residual income”。



一:【it makes no assumptions about future earnings】跟基础班讲义我标黄的句子似乎是矛盾的,讲义是说一阶段模型假设earning growth rate是恒定,而且ROE>Re的情况是persist indefinitely。




二:【it makes no assumptions about future earnings】这句话若是正确的结论,那它这个算是RI 模型的优点?它与下图标黄句子是有关联的吗?



1 个答案
已采纳答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年04月17日

问题一,你截图的是一阶段RI估值模型的公式——实践证明,不太可能有一个公司能够永远提供增长的RI给到投资者,大部分的RI会随着时间和行业红利的消失所消失(老师上课也说过这个结论),所以无论老师上课还是实际生活中,都更多的会运用多阶段估值模型,也就是讲义后面老师列了4个计算PVRI公式的那一页,才是实际生活中运用更多的RI估值模型。而多阶段模型下,更多的是对公司RI本身进行预测,而不再对公司的earnings进行预测,所以这句话说得是对的

问题二,这是RI的优点,但是和你标黄的句子没有关系,因为标黄这句说的其实是FCFF/FCFE的缺点,因为RI不需要预测现金流,所以相对FCFF/FCFE是有优势的,但是和RI不需要对earnings做预测没有关系

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