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Mr.J pass · 2023年04月15日

题干是否有误

NO.PZ2022052301000010

问题如下:

One day after the Brexit referendum, Arzac met with Pak for the annual review of his portfolio and an assessment of his earlier decision to continually add global securities to his portfolio. In the meeting, Pak tells Arzac he and his friends discussed the possible impact of Brexit on their portfolios if the UK decided to leave the EU.

His friends subsequently got out of the market prior to the referendum. Pak, however, decided to stay in the market. The referendum results caused a sharp drop in security prices worldwide, causing Pak’s portfolio value to decline by 20%. He now wants to sell the biggest losers so he can realign his portfolio because he thinks the market will continue to decline given the current momentum. Pak adds, “I should have known the Brexit referendum would go the way it did.

Pak’s conversation with Arzac in the annual review meeting after the Brexit referendum most likely reflects which type of bias?

选项:

A.

Herding

B.

Hindsight

C.

Loss aversion

解释:

In expressing the opinion that he should have known the Brexit referendum outcome in advance, Pak is exhibiting hindsight bias or regret. Humans have a tendency to see past events as having been predictable, and the resulting regret can be acute when the event results in a highly volatile market.

A is incorrect because Pak did not follow his friends when they exited the market prior to the Brexit referendum.

C is incorrect because Pak is selling his biggest losers so does not exhibit signs of loss aversion.

题干是否有误?hinder sight 与regret并非一类

1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2023年04月17日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


1

题干无误哈

我理解同学关注的是解析第一段的第一句话 "Pak is exhibiting hindsight bias or regret"

同学的思路可能是:Hindsight Bias 属于 Cognitive Errors,Regret-aversion Bias 属于 Emotional Biases,所以并非一类

2

但是这道 MOCK 题并不是考查行为偏差的分类哈,考点其实是 Momentum 现象

请参考案例背景第二段倒数第二句话

"he thinks the market will continue to decline given the current momentum"

3

解析其实是改写原版书 P80 第二段的第二句话

也请参考基础班讲义墨迹版 P164

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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2022-08-22 23:49 1 · 回答

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2022-06-26 23:49 1 · 回答