NO.PZ202206070100000103
问题如下：
O’Reilly’s explanation for the anchoring bias and the prudence bias is most likely incorrect?选项：
A.for both. B.only for the prudence bias. C.only for the anchoring bias.解释：
Solution
A is correct. Both of O’Reilly’s explanations are incorrect. His description of the prudence bias is incorrect—he is referring to the confirmation bias. The prudence bias is the tendency to temper forecasts so that they do not appear extreme or the tendency to be overly cautious in forecasting. His explanation of the anchoring bias is also incorrect. The anchoring bias is the tendency of the mind to give disproportionate weight to the first information it receives on a topic: initial impressions, estimates, or data, anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments.
B is incorrect. His description of the prudence bias is incorrect—he is referring to the confirmation bias.
C is incorrect. O’Reilly’s statement regarding the anchoring trap is incorrect. This is a description of availability bias.
A是正确的。奥莱利的两种解释都是不正确的。他对审慎偏差的描述是不正确的——他指的是确认偏差。审慎偏差是指为使预测不显得极端而调整预测的倾向，或预测时过于谨慎的倾向。他对锚定偏差的解释也是不正确的。锚定偏误是一种倾向，即大脑会对接收到的关于某个主题的第一个信息给予不成比例的权重:最初的印象、估计或数据，从而锚定随后的想法和判断。
B是不正确的。他对审慎偏差的描述是不正确的——他指的是确认偏差。
C是不正确的。奥莱利关于锚定陷阱的声明是不正确的。这是对可得性偏差的描述。
老师请问，prudence bias在这句话里是没有的，那就无法判断prudence bias是否正确了呀。
“The anchoring bias is the tendency for forecasts to be overly influenced by the memory of catastrophic or dramatic past events that are anchored in a person’s memory. The confirming evidence trap is the bias that leads individuals to give greater weight to information that supports a preferred viewpoint than to evidence that contradicts it.”
