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𝒜𝒩𝒥𝒜 安雅🎃 · 2023年04月12日

长期赤字不可持续,是什么意思?

NO.PZ2023041102000025

问题如下:

Daltonia is a medium sized developing country. Naim Birol, Minister of Finance for Daltonia. Birol believes Daltonia needs to address a recent increase in inflation and appreciation in the exchange rate. Should these trends accelerate, the country’s present prosperity could be threatened. Birol and his colleague Pamuk discuss policy alternatives.Ÿ

Birol states: “Since Daltonia allows capital to flow freely, the clearest choice is to implement expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to stop the appreciation of the currency according to the Mundell–Fleming model.”Ÿ

Pamuk replies: “The long run solution to the problem, at least according to the portfolio balance approach, would be a policy choice by the Daltonian government to run large budget deficits on a sustained basis.”Ÿ

Birol adds: “There is also a timing dimension to consider. According to Dornbusch, with inflexible domestic prices in the short run, any decrease in nominal money supply will induce an increase in the domestic interest rate. This will encourage capital inflows and cause the exchange rate to overshoot to the upside in the short run, until domestic prices have a chance to react.”

Which of the statements regarding policy alternatives discussed between Birol and Pamuk in response to Daltonia’s recent increase in inflation and deterioration in exchange rate is least accurate?

选项:

A.Birol’s statement regarding Dornbusch B.Pamuk’s statement regarding the portfolio balance approach C.Birol’s statement regarding Mundell–Fleming

解释:

Birol’s statement regarding the Mundell–Fleming model is inaccurate because restrictive (not expansionary) fiscal policy, along with expansionary monetary policy, would lead to capital outflows and cause the currency to depreciate assuming high capital mobility.

我已经听了何老师在经典题里面的解释,我对何老师“长期赤字不可持续”这句话感到困惑。


一国若是长期赤字,那外资会撤资离开本国,本币会贬值,对吧?然后,题干的on a sustained basis就是持续有财政赤字的意思对吧?


何老师写的投资者拒绝fund the deficit,不应该正是因为一国持续长期赤字所以投资者才拒绝fund the deficit进而撤资吗?为啥何老师说“长期赤字不可持续”?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年04月19日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


Hello,亲爱的同学!

可以这么去理解哦。

一个国家一直有赤字,可以理解为这个国家一直在借债,那么借钱不可能无限的借。因为借到一定程度,别人就会评估还款能力,如果认为还款能力不行,就不会再借了。


回到同学问题

一国若是长期赤字,那外资会撤资离开本国,本币会贬值,对吧?

是的。


然后,题干的on a sustained basis就是持续有财政赤字的意思对吧?何老师写的投资者拒绝fund the deficit,不应该正是因为一国持续长期赤字所以投资者才拒绝fund the deficit进而撤资吗?为啥何老师说“长期赤字不可持续”?

长期赤字是不可持续的,因为长期赤字会让投资者拒绝fund。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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