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wanlankiki · 2023年03月28日

C

  1. CFA III
  2. Behavioral Finance

NO.PZ2022052301000017

问题如下：

The CIO then suggests updating their stock selection model to incorporate a price momentum factor. Kelly states that she is concerned that momentum will not be effective across all sectors. The CIO counters that because a number of behavioral biases support the persistence of price momentum, they would be foolish not to incorporate this factor. After a brief discussion, the other committee members agree with the CIO and momentum is added to the stock selection model.

Which of the following biases least likely provides behavioral support for the factor being added to the stock selection model?

选项：

A.

Framing

B.

Availability

C.

Hindsight

解释：

Framing bias is a type of cognitive error in which a person answers a question differently based on the way in which it is asked. This behavior is unlikely to explain the persistence of momentum. Regret is a type of hindsight bias that can result in investors purchasing securities after a significant run-up in price because of a fear of not participating. This bias could explain momentum. With availability bias, also referred to as the recency effect, the tendency to recall recent events more vividly can result in investors extrapolating recent price gains into the future. This bias could also explain momentum.

请问哪里能看出有hindsight

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1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2023年03月29日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


1

这道题不选 C，并不是因为案例背景中，主人公的言行举止，反映出了 Hindsight

考点其实是：哪些偏差可以解释 momentum 现象

2

请看题目的问法，也就是最后一个问句，其实是个定语从句，把 "the factor being added to the stock selection model" 换成 momentum

问句就变成了：Which of the following biases least likely provides behavioral support for momentum

下列哪个偏差最不可能给 momentum 提供行为指导，即最不可能导致 momentum

3

咱们在介绍 hindsight 时，其实有提到后面的处理方式哈

偏差本身的结果之一，是高估自己对某项投资结果的预测程度，从而给自己带来虚假的自信

"Overestimate the degree to which they predicted an investment outcome, thus giving them a false sense of confidence."

例如，当一项投资因不可预见的原因而升值时，投资者可能会改写自己的记忆以反映这些原因，可能导致他们承担过多的风险，导致未来的投资错误

"For example, when an investment appreciates for unforeseen reasons, FMPs may rewrite their own memories to reflect those reasons. The hindsight bias may cause FMPs to take on excessive risk, leading to future investment mistakes."

简单说就是会使投资者追涨杀跌，所以会导致 momentum 现象

也请参考基础班讲义墨迹版 P164

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NO.PZ2022052301000017 问题如下 The CIO then suggests upting their stoselection mol to incorporate a primomentum factor. Kelly states thshe is concernethmomentum will not effective across all sectors. The CIO counters thbecause a number of behaviorbiases support the persistenof primomentum, they woulfoolish not to incorporate this factor. After a brief scussion, the other committee members agree with the CIO anmomentum is aeto the stoselection mol. Whiof the following biases least likely provis behaviorsupport for the factor being aeto the stoselection mol? A.Framing B.Availability C.Hinight Framing biis a type of cognitive error in whia person answers a question fferently baseon the win whiit is aske This behavior is unlikely to explain the persistenof momentum. Regret is a type of hinight bithcresult in investors purchasing securities after a significant run-up in pribecause of a feof not participating. This bicoulexplain momentum. With availability bias, also referreto the receneffect, the tennto recall recent events more viviy cresult in investors extrapolating recent prigains into the future. This bicoulalso explain momentum. Hinight也属于cognitive bias,这题答案是否有问题？

2022-06-26 23:55 2 · 回答