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水瓶公主 · 2023年03月17日

如果都是小于1,是r越大,线型越平稳吗?

NO.PZ2022070602000012

问题如下:

A risk analyst is estimating the variance of returns on a stock index for the next trading day. The analyst uses the following GARCH (1,1) model:

σn2=αrn12+βσn12+γVL\sigma_{n}^{2}=\alpha r_{n-1}^{2}+\beta \sigma_{n-1}^{2}+\gamma V_{L}

where σ_n^2, r_n-1, and σ_n-1 represent the index variance on day n, return on day n-1,and volatility on dayn-1, respectively. If the expected value of the return is constant over time, which combination of values for α and β would result in a stable GARCH (1,1) process?

选项:

A.

α = 0.073637 and β = 0.927363

B.

α = 0.075637 and β = 0.923363

C.

α = 0.084637 and β = 0.916363

D.

α = 0.086637 and β = 0.914363

解释:

中文解析:

B正确。为了让GARCH(1,1)平稳,参数α,β和γ之和必须等于1。所以α和β的和小于1。

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B is correct. For a GARCH (1,1) process to be stable, the parameters α, β, and γ must be

positive and sum to 1. Therefore, the sum of α and β needs to be less than 1.

A, C, and D are incorrect. In each of these cases, the sum of α and β is greater than 1.

所以a+b越小越平稳

1 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2023年03月17日

同学你好,a+b的大小决定的是整个模型预测回归于长期均值的速率,a+b越大回归的越慢,图形详见数量的课程讲义330页。

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