NO.PZ201701230200000602
问题如下：
2. According to Watt’s statement, the shape of UNAB’s credit curve is most likely:
选项：
A.flat.
B.upward-sloping.
C.downward-sloping.
解释：
C is correct.
A downward-sloping credit curve implies a greater probability of default in the earlier years than in the later years. Downward-sloping curves are less common and often are the result of severe near-term stress in the financial markets.
A is incorrect because a flat credit curve implies a constant hazard rate (relevant probability of default). B is incorrect because an upward-sloping credit curve implies a greater probability of default in later years.
如果是一个正常的情况，曲线应该是上升的，就是时间越远不确定的因素越大，流动性越小，所以是upward-sloping，人们需要更强多的补偿。
但这里是near-term crisis，所以就是近期发生风险的概率打，然后人们需要的补偿多，所以就是近期的补偿会高于远期，然后就是downward-sloing。
