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皓月 · 2023年03月02日

没看懂这一题的解析,老师能否讲解一下?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202301100200000604

问题如下:

Using the crude oil futures prices in Exhibit 1, who would most likely account for the lowest roll return until March?

选项:

A.An airline hedging fuel costs B.The QA Energy Commodities Fund C.A crude oil producer hedging production

解释:

Solution

C is correct. A crude oil producer would be short futures to hedge the risk of future falling prices. For example, falling prices would decrease future sales and income. Crude oil futures are in backwardation, causing successive futures contracts to be sold at lower prices and causing roll yield to be negative.

A is incorrect. The airline would be long crude oil futures by hedging potential rising fuel costs. A futures curve in backwardation would allow it to purchase successive futures contracts at lower prices, increasing roll yield.

B is incorrect. The Energy Commodities Fund would be long crude oil futures by being a long-only fund. A futures curve in backwardation would allow it to purchase successive futures contracts at lower prices, increasing roll yield.

实在是没理解

1 个答案
已采纳答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2023年03月08日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


题干背景:Ahn总结道:“价格波动并不是唯一的回报来源。大宗商品期货市场的参与者也可以在投资活动中获得额外的roll return,这取决于他们在市场中的头寸。例如,我们只做多头的QA能源商品基金、对冲燃料成本的航空公司和原油生产商都将使用相同的原油期货,但这不一定会带来相同的roll return。”

 

问题

使用图表1中的原油期货价格(期货曲线处于贴水状态),谁最有可能在3月底获得最低roll return?

 

A不正确。航空公司需要通过long原油期货来对冲可能上涨的燃料成本。期货曲线如果处于贴水状态,将使其能够连续购买较低价格的期货合约,从而提高roll return。

B不正确。能源商品基金(Energy Commodities Fund)是一只做多的基金,是原油期货的多头。期货曲线如果处于贴水状态,将使其能够连续购买较低价格的期货合约,从而提高roll return。

C正确。原油生产商将做空期货,以对冲未来价格下跌的风险。例如,价格下跌会降低未来的销售额和收入。原油期货处于贴水状态,导致期货合约连续以较低的价格出售,并导致roll return为负值。

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