老师我这题选的是C

问题如下：

5. Which of the following changes in market conditions best supports Carlisle’s comment regarding the equilibrium P/E for Country #3?

选项：

A.

An increase in the equity risk premium

B.

A decrease in uncertainty about future inflation

C.

A decrease in expectation of future real earnings growth

解释：

B is correct.

Stock prices are a function of expected cash flows discounted by inflation expectations, the uncertainty of future inflation, and the equity risk premium, among other factors. Holding all else equal, a decline in the uncertainty of future inflation would result in lower discount rates and higher valuations. This result would support a higher equilibrium P/E, thus justifying Country #3’s current trailing P/E being higher than its historical average.

考点：P/E ratio

解析：题目问的是哪个因素可以导致P/E变大。其中P是由未来现金流折现求和所得。

A，equity risk premium增加，导致P/E中的P减小。因为equity risk premium使得折现率变大，分母变大，P减小。

B， uncertainty about future inflation减小，折现率变小，分母变小，P变大，所以P/E变大。

C， real earnings growth减小，可以从两个角度考虑：一是real earnings growth减小导致未来现金流减小，分子变小，P变小，所以P/E变小。二是Goldern Growth Model，P=D1/(r-g)，分母变大，P减小，所以 P/E变小。