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皓月 · 2023年02月08日

选项C为啥是错的

  1. CFA II
  2. Corporate Issuers

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ202210140300000105

问题如下：

Which of Chang’s colleague’s three statements is correct?

选项：

A.

Statement 1

B.

Statement 2

C.

Statement 3

解释：

B is correct. An advantage of the comparable company analysis method is that estimates of value are derived directly from the market. This approach is unlike the discounted cash flow method, in which the value is determined based on many assumptions and estimates.

A is incorrect because the comparable company analysis method is sensitive to market mispricing. As an example, suppose that all the comparable companies are currently overvalued by the market. A valuation relative to those companies may suggest a value that is too high in the sense that values would be revised downward upon a correction.

C is incorrect because the comparable company analysis method provides a reasonable approximation of a target company’s value relative to similar companies (not transactions) in the market. It assumes that “like” assets should be valued on a similar basis in the market.

看了解析没懂，可能是英语理解问题，老师能不能讲解一下？

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王琛_品职助教 · 2023年02月09日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


1

这道题的考点是，对比：可比「公司」分析法 comparable company analysis，和可比「交易」分析法 comparable transaction analysis

需要我们掌握各自的做法，及优缺点

2

可比公司分析法（comparable company analysis）

通过寻找与目标公司相似的上市公司估值数据来进行判断，如 P/E，P/B，P/CF 等

如果该数据仅为二级市场交易数据，则不包含收购溢价，在涉及控制权收购时就需要额外调整收购溢价，即要考虑 takeover preimium

3

比如 2022 原版书中的一道课后题 (虽然 2023 原版书已经删除这道题，但是有助于我们理解，所以下面引用)

现在要评估 D 公司，我们找了两个可比公司 A 和 B，注意表格里第一行的价格是当前的股价 current stock price，而不是收购价格 acquisition share price

使用可比公司法，就是先计算 A 和 B 的各种估值比例，然后再乘以 D 公司的对应数据

但是，如果要评估 D 的收购价格，还需要找一个最近的可比交易，需要计算收购溢价

然后用上一步的计算结果，乘以溢价，才是使用可比公司法，得到的最终结果

即 33.67，乘以 1.239，即 41.72

4

可比交易法（comparable transaction approach）

通过寻找与目标公司相似的兼并收购案例来进行判断

因为是直接与收购的价格而不是二级市场的股票价格对比，故其中已经包含了收购溢价

请看基础班讲义 P164

注意，表格第一行，已经是收购价格 acquisition share price 了

4

所以，再看第三个描述，其实描述的方法是可比交易法，而不是可比公司法

所以解析在强调，可比公司法，关注的是可比公司 similar companies，而不是选项描述的可比交易 not transactions

5

最后，用二手房买卖举例，比如你想买一个二手房，看上了一个房子，虽然人家有报价，但是你想自己评估一下价格

可比公司法，是说你先找和这个房子相似的房子，比如同一个小区，同样的户型，同样的面积的房子，只不过这些相似的房子，也只有报价，还没有成交

而可比交易法，也是先找相似的房子，但是这些房子，都是最近成交的。你直接用这些房子的成交价，计算均值，就能评估出价格

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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