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Kathy苏苏 · 2023年02月07日

没看懂,请详解。

NO.PZ2020012005000040

问题如下:

Suppose that F1 and F2 are the futures prices on the same commodity with maturities t1 and t2 with t2 > t1. Storage costs are negligible. The risk-free rate is R for all maturities. Use an arbitrage argument to show that:

F2F1(1+R)t2t1F_2\leq F_1(1+R)^{t_2-t_1}

选项:

解释:

A trader can enter into a long futures contract with maturity t1 and a short futures contract with maturity t2. At time t1 F1 is borrowed and the asset is bought for F1. The loan is repaid at time t2 and the asset is sold for F2.

The cash flows are

Time t1:F1+F1=0t_1: -F_1 + F_1 = 0, and

Time t2:F2F1(1+R)t2t1t_2: F_2 - F_1(1 + R)^{t_2 - t_1}

This simple strategy is certain to lead to a profit at time t2 if:

F2>F1(1+R)t2t1F_2 > F_1(1 + R)^{t_2 - t_1}

Thus, the prices will adjust such that:

F2F1(1+R)t2t1F_2 \leq F_1(1 + R)^{t_2 - t_1}

没看懂,请详解。谢谢老师。

1 个答案

pzqa27 · 2023年02月08日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这道题是为了证明题干结尾的结论成立。


首先,套利的本质是空手套白狼。

所以在t1时刻,先从银行借了一笔钱F1,买入资产F1;同时进入了一个空头期货合约


在t2时刻,首先要做的是归还贷款,贷款金额=F1*(1+r)^(t2 - t1),

然后将我们在t1时买入的资产进行交割,此外还可以收到一笔钱F2,

所以t2 时刻,我们的现金流就是F2-F1*(1+r)^(t2-t1)


如果定价出现了题干中的F2 > F1*(1+r)^(t2-t1),那这个现金流就是大于0的,但这是不可能出现的(因为金融市场不存在空手套白狼),所以F2一定小于等于右边。


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