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醉清风 · 2023年02月07日

这道题我算了一遍答案也是0.2，烦请老师看下是否正确

  1. CFA I
  2. Quantitative

NO.PZ2015120604000073

问题如下：

According to the above table, which of the following statements is the most correct?

选项：

A.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.01.

B.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.20.

C.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.50.

解释：

B is correct.

P(good performance of next day/poor performance of today)=0.2, which is shown in the table.

04*0.2除以（0.4*0.2+0.4*0.5+0.4*0.3）

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2 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2023年02月07日

@醉清风 是的，0.2不是通过计算得到的。

星星_品职助教 · 2023年02月07日

同学你好，

本题不涉及计算。题干表格中最后一列就是条件概率，即本题答案是从表格中直接读出来的。

醉清风 · 2023年02月07日

那我这个答案是不是纯属偶然了？

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