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dognmnm · 2023年02月06日

长期与短期

  1. CFA III
  2. Capital Market Expectations

NO.PZ2020012102000008

问题如下：

An analyst at a real estate investment management firm seeks to establish expectations for rate of return for properties in the industrial sector over the next year. She has obtained the following information:

Estimate the expected return from the industrial sector properties based on the data provided.

选项：

解释：

The expected change in the cap rate from 5.7% to 5.5% represents a (5.5% – 5.7%)/5.7% = 3.5% decrease.
Using the expression E(Rre) = CapRate + NOI growth rate – %ΔCapRate = 5.7% + (1% + 1.5%) – (–3.5%) = 11.7%.
Note: As the cap rate is expected to decrease, property values are expected to increase, hence the cap rate change contributes to the expected return.

解析：

上限率从5.7%到5.5%的预期变化为(5.5% -5.7%)/5.7% = 3.5%。

使用表达式E(Rre) = CapRate + NOI growth rate – %ΔCapRate = 5.7%+ (1% + 1.5%) – (–3.5%) = 11.7%.

注意到，由于 cap rate预期会下降，物业价值预期会上升，因此上限税率的改变对预期回报有贡献。

我如何从题目中判断他要求的回报是长期的还是短期的? 如果是长期的, cap rate的变化我不就不用考虑了吗?

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2 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2023年02月07日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


楼上同学说的是对的，因为题目中有说，expected return over the next year，那就是一个短期的概念。

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努力的时光都是限量版，加油！

18516993696 · 2023年02月06日

题目中说是让求expected return over the next year，所以应该用short term的那个公式吧？

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