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Ning Cui · 2023年02月05日

为什么不是条件概率

  1. CFA I
  2. Quantitative

NO.PZ2015120604000073

问题如下：

According to the above table, which of the following statements is the most correct?

选项：

A.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.01.

B.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.20.

C.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.50.

解释：

B is correct.

P(good performance of next day/poor performance of today)=0.2, which is shown in the table.

这道题不是说在一个事件发生的前提下，这个事件发生吗？不应该用P(B|A)=P(AB)/P(A)这个公式吗？就是0.2/0.4

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1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2023年02月06日

同学你好，

注意表格条件。最后一列已经是条件概率了。直接选数就可以，不需要再去计算了。

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