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lcc7678 · 2023年02月05日

问一个有关leading indicator-based approach的问题

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NO.PZ202105270100000203

问题如下:

Cambo compares her business cycle forecasting approach to the approach used by the chief economist. Cambo bases her equity market forecast on a time-series model using a composite index of leading indicators as the key input, whereas the chief economist uses a detailed econometric model to generate his economic forecasts.

Discuss strengths and weaknesses of the economic forecasting approaches used by Cambo and the chief economist.


选项:

解释:

想问一下老师,在答案的中关于关于Cambo‘s用的leading indicator-based方法的weakness中有句话,“current data not reliable as input for histotical analysis”

这句话应该如何理解,我不是很明白,希望老师能解答一下。

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2023年02月06日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:



这句话直译为:当前数据作为历史分析的输入是不可靠

它的意思是,指标方法主要是用历史数据得到的结论。

那么其实当前数据对于预测未来而言,当前数据也是历史数据,

用这类数据作为变量,去预测未来,恐怕就是不可靠的。

----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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