NO.PZ2020012201000003
问题如下:
Which of the following phenomenons is often referred to as the “peso problem"
选项:
A.Looking backward, we are likely to underestimate ex ante risk and overestimate ex ante anticipated returns.
B.Looking backward, we are likely to overestimate ex ante risk and overestimate ex ante anticipated returns.
Looking backward, we are likely to underestimate ex ante risk and underestimate ex ante anticipated returns.
解释:
A is correct.
解释:
“peso problem"通常是指在解释给定样本期间的历史价格和收益时,分析师需要评估资产价格是否反映了在此期间没有发生的非常负面事件的可能性。所以回顾过去,我们可能会低估事前风险,高估事前预期回报。所以只有A选项正确。
我看了一圈问答,一会说低估,一会说高估,都晕了。 这个事前到底是因何而低估风险的,又因何而高估收益率的?
风险和收益不是同向变动吗(风险越大,收益越大) 。 例如我预期未来会发生极端时间,但是我可能没想到那个事件会如此极端,所以我就低估了风险,但是我所低估的风险,不也反映在我的预期回报中吗,既然风险低估了,我自然要的回报率也会变低,那不就是低估了回报率么。