NO.PZ201512020800000204
问题如下:
4. The best response to Question 1 is that the policies will:
选项:
A.have no impact.
B.lead to currency appreciation.
C.lead to currency depreciation.
解释:
B is correct.
The currency is likely to appreciate. The emerging market country has both a restrictive monetary policy and restrictive fiscal policy under conditions of low capital mobility. Low capital mobility indicates that interest rate changes induced by monetary and fiscal policy will not cause large changes in capital flows. Implementation of restrictive policies should result in an improvement in the trade balance, which will result in currency appreciation.
考点:Mudell-Fleming model的经典考法,要求考生熟练掌握在不同的政策下对汇率的影响。
解析:比如这道题,在资本限制流动的情况下,紧缩的货币政策会抬升利率,吸引资本流入,但是由于资本账户是受到管制的,资本流出规模非常有限,因此本币小幅度升值。
一方面,紧缩的财政政策阻碍经济增长,国民收入减少,进口减少,贸易顺差扩大,本币升值。
另一方面,紧缩的财政政策导致利率下降,资金流出,但由于资本账户管制,流出的资金有限,本币贬值幅度很小,
最终结果就是在资本管制下紧缩的财政政策导致本币升值。
1、扩张性的财政政策+扩张性的货币政策 导致货币贬值
2、紧缩性的财政政策+紧缩性的货币政策 导致货币升值
3、扩张性的财政政策+紧缩性的货币政策 不确定
4、紧缩性的扩张政策+扩张性的财政政策 不确定
我这个理解对不对?