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cika · 2023年01月28日

麻烦老师讲下这道题

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202207040100000502

问题如下:

Evidence of which behavioral bias is most likely to be found when analyzing the Lunnar C fund?

选项:

A.Survivorship B.Look-ahead C.Confirmation

解释:

Solution

C is correct. Confirmation bias, a cognitive error sometimes referred to as “stock love bias,” is the tendency of fundamental-based analysts and investors to look for information that confirms their existing beliefs about their favorite companies and to ignore or undervalue any information that contradicts their existing beliefs. Both look-ahead bias and survivorship bias are risks inherent in backtesting quantitative active strategies.

A is incorrect. Survivorship bias is a risk inherent in backtesting a quantitative active strategy. This approach creates a bias whereby only companies that have survived are tested and it is assumed that the strategy would never have invested in companies that have failed. Survivorship bias often leads to overly optimistic results and sometimes even causes investors to draw wrong conclusions.

B is incorrect. Look-ahead bias is a risk inherent in backtesting a quantitative active strategy. This bias results from using information that was unknown or unavailable at the time an investment decision was made. An example of this bias is the use of financial accounting data for a company at a point in time before the data were actually released by the company.

老师,请问这道题定位到原文中的哪一段呢,又是如何得出结论的。

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年01月30日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


老师,请问这道题定位到原文中的哪一段呢,又是如何得出结论的。

投资者买入了股票后,去分析股票的基本面时候,有意寻找有利于股票上涨的信息,这种行为偏差是Confirmation。



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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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NO.PZ202207040100000502问题如下 MoniPopkirk Case ScenarioMoniPopkirk rects the equity manager selection teof PV-AmeriWealth Management (“PV”). She anher analysts evaluate, classify, anrecommenfun to the PV investment committee. PV haskePopkirk to broan the selection of approvefun for its investment aisers to use in client portfolios analso to inclu some alternative asset classes possibly using some hee fun. Popkirk anher teexamine the funscriptions anconsir both holngs-baseanreturns-baseapproaches to style classification. Intenng to selea top-wn funmentally iven manager, she consirs three cantes from LunnAssociates, shown in Exhibit 1.Exhibit 1 LunnAssociates Fun unr ConsirationBeyonthe funscriptions, Popkirk instructs her teto assemble analysis table to help termine whiof Lunnar’s fun hthe closest fit to the style of its chosen benchmark inx. She points out thall three of these fun are long only with well-known anacceptestyle box categories. ta are provifor both the holngs-basestyle analysis of the current portfolio anthe returns-basestyle analysis baseon 36 months of historicreturns anare shown in Exhibit 2.Exhibit 2 LunnFunStyle AnalysisPopkirk explains to her analysts ththe better active funmanagers wisely consir whpitfalls anbehaviorbiases mrealy affetheir strategies anthose of their competitors. For instance, when evaluating the funmentapproauseLunnPopkirk says thanalysts shoullook for evinthone of the following three biases have been acknowleeanaressethe manager: survivorship bias, confirmation bias, or look-ahebias.gging eper into another one of Lunnar’s fun, Popkirk’s analysts review anscuss the Lunnfuns annureports for the last six years. One of the reports note “ring the last recession, we rotateinto ep-value companies likely to liver superior returns a risk-on environment returne”The analysts then make the following comments:Analyst 1: “The funis following a top-wn approach.”Analyst 2: “I sagree. The emphasis on economic analysis is consistent with top wn, but because it uses ep-value stocks, the approais clearly bottom up.”Analyst 3: “After reang the reports for all years, I wleft thinking thoverall they are GARP managers—growth a reasonable price—whiis top wn.”One of PV’s committee members haskePopkirk for her thoughts to whistyle classification shoulusewhen scribing Lunnar’s populhee fun the LunnHee-X fun It uses a variety of techniques to achieve alphinclung long–short equity portfolios with substantifutures anoptions overlays to control risk. Lunnsuggests its clients use a combination of the LunnHee-X funalong with its more trationfun to improve the Sharpe ratio of its overall portfolios.Boris Thompson, one of the Lunnmanagers, claims to have hconsistent success in beating his benchmark using primomentum a rewarequity factor exposure. Popkirk warns her analysts ththe manager mnot truly forthcoming regarng some perio of unrperformance. Question Evinof whibehaviorbiis most likely to founwhen analyzing the LunnC funA.SurvivorshipB.Look-ahea.ConfirmationSolutionC is correct. Confirmation bias, a cognitive error sometimes referreto “stolove bias,” is the tennof funmental-baseanalysts aninvestors to look for information thconfirms their existing beliefs about their favorite companies anto ignore or unrvalue any information thcontracts their existing beliefs. Both look-ahebiansurvivorship biare risks inherent in backtesting quantitative active strategies. A is incorrect. Survivorship biis a risk inherent in backtesting a quantitative active strategy. This approacreates a biwhereonly companies thhave surviveare testeanit is assumeththe strategy woulnever have investein companies thhave faile Survivorship bioften lea to overly optimistic results ansometimes even causes investors to wrong conclusions. B is incorrect. Look-ahebiis a risk inherent in backtesting a quantitative active strategy. This biresults from using information thwunknown or unavailable the time investment cision wma. example of this biis the use of financiaccounting ta for a company a point in time before the ta were actually releasethe company.考点讲义帮忙截个图放上来吧,补充在回答里,谢谢

2024-02-07 08:00 1 · 回答

NO.PZ202207040100000502问题如下Evinof whibehaviorbiis most likely to founwhen analyzing the LunnC funA.SurvivorshipB.Look-ahea.ConfirmationSolutionC is correct. Confirmation bias, a cognitive error sometimes referreto “stolove bias,” is the tennof funmental-baseanalysts aninvestors to look for information thconfirms their existing beliefs about their favorite companies anto ignore or unrvalue any information thcontracts their existing beliefs. Both look-ahebiansurvivorship biare risks inherent in backtesting quantitative active strategies. A is incorrect. Survivorship biis a risk inherent in backtesting a quantitative active strategy. This approacreates a biwhereonly companies thhave surviveare testeanit is assumeththe strategy woulnever have investein companies thhave faile Survivorship bioften lea to overly optimistic results ansometimes even causes investors to wrong conclusions. B is incorrect. Look-ahebiis a risk inherent in backtesting a quantitative active strategy. This biresults from using information thwunknown or unavailable the time investment cision wma. example of this biis the use of financiaccounting ta for a company a point in time before the ta were actually releasethe company.根据表1显示,lunnc会着重neterm的表现且下文又说会看well known的,那么就容易产生survivor ship的问题吧?题干也无法定位到哪里说是confirmation bias的,没看到哪里说只看对自己有利的信息或相关内容,麻烦帮手指点迷津下,谢谢

2023-08-29 11:06 1 · 回答