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unique · 2023年01月28日

请问老师,这道题是这样分析吗?

NO.PZ2022052301000006

问题如下:

Over the next week, Owen and Yang are scheduled to meet with Fillman Associates, Philly’s largest institutional client. Owen mentions that Fillman is more sophisticated than Philly’s typical client. To prepare for the meeting Yang reviews several of Fillman’s annual due diligence forms completed by Owen. One question in particular catches her attention: it asked how the firm’s equity portfolios performed during the 2005–2007 residential property boom and how the equity turnover rates varied from previous years when the markets were more efficient. In part, the response read, “During the residential property boom of 2005–2007 equity trading activity was significantly higher than previous years when the markets were more efficient. Our trading expertise allowed us to consistently harvest profits.”

What behavioral bias is most likely indicated by Philly’s equity turnover rates during the 2005–2007 residential boom?

选项:

A.

Herding

B.

Overconfidence

C.

Recency effect

解释:

Philly’s increased trading activity is indicative of overconfidence. In bubbles investors often exhibit symptoms of overconfidence; overtrading, under-estimation of risks, failure to diversify, and rejection of contradictory information. With overconfidence, investors are more active and trading volume increases, thus lowering their expected profits. Overconfidence and excessive trading are linked to confirmation bias and self-attribution bias as well as hindsight bias and the illusion of knowledge.

2005-2007 residential property boom = bubbles


在bubbles下分为rational bias和behavioral bias,其中题目问的behavioral bias包含以下:


anchoring 

confirmation

disposition effect

hindsight bias

illusion of knowledge

overconfidence 

regret aversion

self-attribution


因此,根据排除法,选择B overconfidence


1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2023年01月28日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


1

同学的分析,是其中一种解题思路哈

但是我个人认为,这并不是出题人的意图

因为如果按照同学的思路,考生需要先背诵记忆 bubles 的 8 种行为偏差解释

这种考查方式属于纯考查记忆了,不是协会的出题风格

2

出题人的意图,应该是让同学辨析,三个选项,在题干背景中,是否有明确的关键词对应

因为选出的是 most likely,所以只有一个选项,是有明确的题干对应;另外两个选项都没有提到

这道题我之前刚好总结过,请同学先参考一下:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/105603

如果还有问题,可以追问或者评论,我再回答同学的后续疑问哈

----------------------------------------------
就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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