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非恒名 · 2023年01月25日

这道题是哪个考点?

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NO.PZ202209060200004406

问题如下:

Based on Choate’s final comments and the COF portfolio positions in Exhibit 1, Choate is most likely expecting:

选项:

A.improved real estate markets and higher interest rate volatility.

B.lower interest rate volatility and increasing default correlations.

C.lower interest rate volatility and decreasing default correlations.

解释:

Solution

B is correct. Choate expresses his belief that market expectations of interest rate volatility will decrease, so he buys agency MBS in the COF portfolio. The correlation of expected defaults on the collateral of a CDO affects the relative value between the senior and subordinated tranches; as default correlations increase, the value of mezzanine tranches usually increases relative to the value of senior tranches. Because he expects the correlation to be highly positive, he can try to profit by selling the lower yielding (or selling short) Class A and buying the higher yielding Class B.

A is incorrect because an investor buying MBS expects lower, not higher, volatility.

C is incorrect because an investor that expects higher correlations would short Class A and go long Class B.

能再解释一下default correlation这部分吗?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa015 · 2023年01月27日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


default correlation是CDO不同层级之间的违约相关系数,default correlation越大,意味着CDO的优先、夹层、劣后都有可能违约或者都有可能不违约。default correlation越小,意味着CDO的越劣后,违约的可能性越大,越优先,违约的可能性越小。

所以,预期default correlation上升,应该buy更劣后级别的份额,sell更优先级别的份额,

原因是:如果优先于劣后都违约了,但劣后肯定卖的便宜,所以劣后的更好;如果优先与劣后都不违约,那么买劣后有更高的收益,但并没有真正违约,也是劣后的更好。

反之,如果预期default correlation下降,应该buy更优先的份额,sell更劣后的份额。


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