技术分析法在哪里提到了

问题如下：

Guten Investments GmbH, based in Germany and using the EUR as its reporting currency, is an asset management firm providing investment services for local high net worth and institutional investors seeking international exposures. The firm invests in the Swiss, UK, and US markets, after conducting fundamental research in order to select individual investments. Exhibit 1 presents recent information for exchange rates in these foreign markets.

In prior years, the correlation between movements in the foreign-currency asset returns for the USD- denominated assets and movements in the exchange rate was estimated to be +0.50. After analyzing global financial markets, Konstanze Ostermann, a portfolio manager at Guten Investments, now expects that this correlation will increase to +0.80, although her forecast for foreign-currency asset returns is unchanged.

Ostermann believes that currency markets are efficient and hence that long-run gains cannot be achieved from active currency management, especially after netting out management and transaction costs. She uses this philosophy to guide hedging decisions for her discretionary accounts, unless instructed otherwise by the client.

Ostermann is aware, however, that some investors hold an alternative view on the merits of active currency management. Accordingly, their portfolios have different investment guidelines. For these accounts, Guten Investments employs a currency specialist firm, Umlauf Management, to provide currency overlay programs specific to each client‘s investment objectives. For most hedging strategies, Umlauf Management develops a market view based on underlying fundamentals in exchange rates. However, when directed by clients, Umlauf Management uses options and a variety of trading strategies to unbundle all of the various risk factors (the -Greeks-) and trade them separately.

Ostermann conducts an annual review for three of her clients and gathers the summary information presented in Exhibit 2.

4. The active currency management approach that Umlauf Management is least likely to employ is based on:

选项：

A.

volatility trading.

B.

technical analysis.

C.

economic fundamentals.

解释：

B is correct.

Umlauf develops a market view based on underlying fundamentals in exchange rates (an economic fundamental approach). When directed by clients, Umlauf uses options and a variety of trading strategies to unbundle all of the various risk factors and trades them separately (a volatility trading approach). A market technical approach would entail forming a market view based on technical analysis (i.e., a belief that historical prices incorporate all relevant information on future price movements and that such movements have a tendency to repeat).

A is incorrect because, in using options and a variety of trading strategies to unbundle all of the various risk factors and trade them separately, Umlauf is likely to periodically employ volatility trading-based currency strategies.

C is incorrect because, in developing a market view based on underlying fundamentals in exchange rates, Umlauf does utilize an economic fundamentals approach.

中文解析：

Umlauf 基于汇率的基本原理形成了一种市场观点，这是一种基于经济基本面的方法。

Umlauf使用期权和各种交易策略将所有各种风险因素分开进行交易，这是一种基于波动率的交易方法。

没有用到的是技术分析法，例如相信历史价格包含了未来价格走势的所有相关信息，并且这种走势有重复的趋势等。