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ruby5ltc · 2023年01月02日

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NO.PZ202208160100000206

问题如下:

Brannigan’s belief that Nexran should hedge against the Trundool Republic dollar is best described as being based on which of the following exchange rate adjustment mechanisms?

选项:

A.Debt sustainability B.Portfolio balance C.Flow supply/demand

解释:

Solution

B is correct. The mechanism referred to by Brannigan is the portfolio balance channel. Current account imbalances shift financial wealth from deficit nations to surplus nations. Over time, this may lead to shifts in global asset preferences, which, in turn, could affect the path of exchange rates and hence optimal portfolio holdings. Attempts by the Trundool Republic to reduce USD holdings to desired levels could then have a profound negative impact on the USD’s value.

A is incorrect. According to the debt sustainability channel, there should be a limit on the ability of countries to run persistently wide current account deficits. For deficit countries, rising net external debt levels as a percentage of GDP should result in downward revisions of the currency’s long-run equilibrium value. For surplus countries, rising net external asset levels as a percentage of GDP should give rise to upward revisions of the currency’s long-run equilibrium value.

C is incorrect. The flow supply/demand channel is based on a model whereby purchases and sales of internationally traded goods and services require the exchange of domestic and foreign currencies in order to arrange payment for the goods and services. We would expect that countries with persistent current account surpluses would see their currencies appreciate over time and vice versa.

portfolio balance说的是扩张的财政政策最终导致投资者撤资,本币贬值,和题干没有关系呀

另外,B选项错在哪里

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年01月02日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:



这道题不适用最新2023版考纲了。

关于这部分知识点,我们就记忆强化讲义中这些表格中的名词就可以了。

当然同学也可以拓展一下自己的知识点。



A选项的debt sustainability channel也就是表格中的external sustainability approach。新的考纲把名词改了,但是意思差不多。


B选项的portfolio balance channel,是指投资组合平衡渠道假设经常账户失衡将金融财富从赤字国家转移到盈余国家。贸易逆差国家将通过增加借款为其贸易提供资金。这种行为可能导致全球资产偏好的变化,进而影响汇率路径。这个理论会挪到三级中学习。


C选项的flow supply/demand channel,是指贸易顺差国的货币会升值。贸易逆差国的货币会贬值。即国际贸易货物和服务的购买和销售需要本国货币和外币的兑换,以便安排这些货物和服务付款。货币需求的这种变化会对盈余国货币的价值产生上行压力,对赤字国货币的价格产生下行压力。

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