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aileen20180623 · 2022年12月22日

这题我有疑问

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ201710200100000202

问题如下：

2. Using her first valuation approach and Exhibit 1, Withers’s forecast of the per share stock value of Ukon Corporation at the end of 2017 should be closest to:

选项：

A.

EUR 48.

B.

EUR 50.

C.

EUR 51

解释：

C is correct based on Withers’s assumptions applied to the dividend valuation model. The stock value as of the end of 2017 equals the present value of all future dividends in 2018 through 2021 plus the present value of the terminal value at the end of 2021. The forecasted stock value equals EUR 51.254:


57.980

60.795

44.686

2022

2.815(1.03) = 2.899




Total




51.254

The terminal value at the end of 2021 is calculated using the dividend in the first year beyond the first stage, divided by the difference between the required rate of return and the growth rate in the second stage.

Terminal value at end of 2021 = 2.815*(1.03)/ ( 0.08−0.03 ) =57.980

这题的答案我有点蒙，我算是2.315/1.08+2.315/1.08^ 2+。。。+（2.315*（1.05^ 4）（1.03）/（0.08-0.03）），跟答案里的不一样，答案里每年div都在三年基础上乘，这个和我这种说法的区别点在哪里？

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2022年12月23日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


同学你好，你看题目文字第三行后半部分说了“dividend for 2017 was EUR 2.315”——意思就是过去的D0是2.315，你的计算中直接显示D1就是2.315，这肯定是不对的

然后题干说了要用Exhibit 1中的第一种方法，你找到对应的方法，也就是题干表格1中的Two-stage DDM，里面写了2018年到2021年是5%增长率（也就是三年按照5%增长），然后2022年开始就一直是3%了

所以按照题意，D1 =2.315*1.05

D2 = 2.315*1.05^2, D3 = 2.315*1.05^3,然后D4=D3*1.03

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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