市场中性利率

NO.PZ202206070100000403 问题如下 Baseon how the Taylor rule is applieLi’s team, the centrbank’s estimateoptimshort-term rate is closest to: A.2.8%. B.1.5%. C.2.0%. SolutionC is correct. The Taylor rule sets the optimshort-term rate asNeutrrate + 0.5 × (G growth forecast – G growth tren + 0.5 × (Inflation forecast – Inflation target)Applying numbers from Exhibit 3,2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5 × (2.0% - 1.0%) + 0.5 × (1.5% - 3.5%).A is incorrect. The fferenbetween the earnings trenanforecast is incluwith eafferenbetween forecast antrenbeing weighte0.333.2.8% = 2.5% + 0.333 × (2.0% – 1.0%) + 0.333 × (1.5% -– 3.5%) + 0.333 × (4.0% – 2.0%)B is incorrect. The inflation anG austments are not multiplie0.5.本题考查的是泰勒公式C是正确的。泰勒规则将最优短期利率设为中性利率+ 0.5 × (G增长预测- G增长趋势)+ 0.5 ×(通胀预测-通胀目标)2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5××(2.0% - 1.0%)+ 0.5(1.5% - 3.5%)。A是不正确的。收益趋势和预测之间的差异被包括在内，预测和趋势之间的每个差异被错误地使用了0.333加权。B是不正确的。通胀和G的调整没有乘以0.5。 Baseon Taylor’s rule, with assumption of equweights applieto forecast versus trenmeasures, the short-term rate is expecteto increase from the current 1.23%, anthe yielcurve is expecteto flatten for longer maturities.我还以为这里的1.23%是中性利率。为什么这个不是。

NO.PZ202206070100000403问题如下 Minglu Li Case ScenarioRE Partners specializes in forecasting anconsulting in particulsectors of the equity market. Minglu Li is one of the company’s analysts specializing in the consumer cret instry. A new consumer cret mechanism wbeing testeon a small scale using a smartphone application to pfor items insteof the trationcret car The application hprovesuccessful in the use of microloans in veloping countries anwnow being applieto a mubroar consumer base. The new challenge for Li’s teis to velop a mol for the expectereturn for these new consumer cret companies, whiare calle“smart cret” companies because they combine the consumer cret instry anwhhtrationally been consirethe telecommunications instry.Although smart cret company returns ta are sparse, a five-yemonthly equally weighteinx callethe “Smart Cret Inx” (SCI) wcreatefrom the existing companies’ returns tThe number of companies in the inx a given time varies because of firms failing analso merging over time.Li’s tealso examines survey ta projecting the future performanof the consumer cret antelecommunications instries over the same time periofor whithe actuperformanta wcollecte They founthprojections in the survey ta tento more volatile ththe actuperformant However, Li’s tecinot to make any austments to the survey ta because a finitive procere coulnot termineGiven the effeof short-term interest rates on consumer cret, Li’s tecis to termine whthe short-term interest rate is expecteto in the future. The centrbank’s last officistatement intifie2.5% the appropriate rate, assuming no other factors. Li’s tethen estimates potentifactors thmmake the centrbank behave fferently from the 2.5% rate in the statement, shown in Exhibit 1.Exhibit 1 EstimateCentrBank FactorsBaseon Taylor’s rule, with assumption of equweights applieto forecast versus trenmeasures, the short-term rate is expecteto increase from the current 1.23%, anthe yielcurve is expecteto flatten for longer maturities.For further insight, Li cis to consult in-house expert on centrbanking, Ran Tolliver. Tolliver states the economy is likely in the early expansion phase of the business cycle baseon the yielcurve anconsistent with this phase of the business cycle, monetary poliis becoming less stimulative.Question Baseon how the Taylor rule is applieLi’s team, the centrbank’s estimateoptimshort-term rate is closest to:A.2.8%.B.1.5%.C.2.0%. SolutionC is correct. The Taylor rule sets the optimshort-term rate asNeutrrate + 0.5 × (G growth forecast – G growth tren + 0.5 × (Inflation forecast – Inflation target)Applying numbers from Exhibit 3,2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5 × (2.0% - 1.0%) + 0.5 × (1.5% - 3.5%).A is incorrect. The fferenbetween the earnings trenanforecast is incluwith eafferenbetween forecast antrenbeing weighte0.333.2.8% = 2.5% + 0.333 × (2.0% – 1.0%) + 0.333 × (1.5% -– 3.5%) + 0.333 × (4.0% – 2.0%)B is incorrect. The inflation anG austments are not multiplie0.5.本题考查的是泰勒公式C是正确的。泰勒规则将最优短期利率设为中性利率+ 0.5 × (G增长预测- G增长趋势)+ 0.5 ×(通胀预测-通胀目标)2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5××(2.0% - 1.0%)+ 0.5(1.5% - 3.5%)。A是不正确的。收益趋势和预测之间的差异被包括在内，预测和趋势之间的每个差异被错误地使用了0.333加权。B是不正确的。通胀和G的调整没有乘以0.5。 还放着旧答案是什么意思，题库质量那么差的？

NO.PZ202206070100000403 问题如下 Baseon how the Taylor rule is applieLi’s team, the centrbank’s estimateoptimshort-term rate is closest to: A.2.8%. B.1.5%. C.2.0%. SolutionC is correct. The Taylor rule sets the optimshort-term rate asNeutrrate + 0.5 × (G growth forecast – G growth tren + 0.5 × (Inflation forecast – Inflation target)Applying numbers from Exhibit 3,2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5 × (2.0% - 1.0%) + 0.5 × (1.5% - 3.5%).A is incorrect. The fferenbetween the earnings trenanforecast is incluwith eafferenbetween forecast antrenbeing weighte0.333.2.8% = 2.5% + 0.333 × (2.0% – 1.0%) + 0.333 × (1.5% -– 3.5%) + 0.333 × (4.0% – 2.0%)B is incorrect. The inflation anG austments are not multiplie0.5.本题考查的是泰勒公式C是正确的。泰勒规则将最优短期利率设为中性利率+ 0.5 × (G增长预测- G增长趋势)+ 0.5 ×(通胀预测-通胀目标)2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5××(2.0% - 1.0%)+ 0.5(1.5% - 3.5%)。A是不正确的。收益趋势和预测之间的差异被包括在内，预测和趋势之间的每个差异被错误地使用了0.333加权。B是不正确的。通胀和G的调整没有乘以0.5。 中性利率2.5，是不是还要expecteinflation. 为啥漏掉了

NO.PZ202206070100000403问题如下Baseon how the Taylor rule is applieLi’s team, the centrbank’s estimateoptimshort-term rate is closest to:A.2.8%.B.1.5%.C.2.0%. SolutionC is correct. The Taylor rule sets the optimshort-term rate asNeutrrate + 0.5 × (G growth forecast – G growth tren + 0.5 × (Inflation forecast – Inflation target)Applying numbers from Exhibit 3,2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5 × (2.0% - 1.0%) + 0.5 × (1.5% - 3.5%).A is incorrect. The fferenbetween the earnings trenanforecast is incluwith eafferenbetween forecast antrenbeing weighte0.333.2.8% = 2.5% + 0.333 × (2.0% – 1.0%) + 0.333 × (1.5% -– 3.5%) + 0.333 × (4.0% – 2.0%)B is incorrect. The inflation anG austments are not multiplie0.5.本题考查的是泰勒公式C是正确的。泰勒规则将最优短期利率设为中性利率+ 0.5 × (G增长预测- G增长趋势)+ 0.5 ×(通胀预测-通胀目标)2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5××(2.0% - 1.0%)+ 0.5(1.5% - 3.5%)。A是不正确的。收益趋势和预测之间的差异被包括在内，预测和趋势之间的每个差异被错误地使用了0.333加权。B是不正确的。通胀和G的调整没有乘以0.5。 依据现在的考纲是否应该加inflation