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雷雷12322 · 2022年12月11日

老师请解释下这个题目的含义以及考查的是哪个知识点

NO.PZ2022071202000042

问题如下:

Question A tree diagram is most likely used when dealing with investment problems that involve outcomes that are:

选项:

A.independent at each node. B.mutually exclusive. C.unconditional at each node.

解释:

Solution

B is correct. The following figure depicts an example of a tree diagram:

MAX17012-MC-Fg

A tree diagram is a diagram with branches emanating from nodes representing either mutually exclusive outcomes or mutually exclusive decisions. Mutually exclusive outcomes are dependent (the occurrence of one outcome does affect the probability of occurrence of the other outcome). In addition, outcomes at each node are conditional (the probability of an outcome is conditioned on another outcome).

A is incorrect. Two outcomes are independent if the occurrence of one outcome does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other outcome. At each node of a tree diagram, the two outcomes that follow are dependent because the probability on the outcome on one branch is related to the probability of the outcome on the other branch.C is incorrect. Outcomes are unconditional when the probability of an outcome is not conditioned on another outcome. In a tree diagram, outcomes at each node are conditional (the probability of an outcome is conditioned on another outcome).

No.PZ2022071202000042 (选择题)

来源: Handbook

Question A tree diagram is most likely used when dealing with investment problems that involve outcomes that are:


A independent at each node.

B mutually exclusive.

C unconditional at each node

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年12月12日

同学你好,

tree diagram是求expected value时的一种图像表示。可以参照一下Module 3下面对应视频中这个具体的例子。

在tree diagram中,最终的结果都是mutually exclusive的。即如果outcome 1发生了,out come 2、3...等就不会再发生了。

截图的这个例子中,如果EPS=1.8这件事发生了,那么EPS就不会再等于1.7或1.3或1.0了。

所以tree diagram适用于结果互斥的投资问题。

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