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陆佳莹 · 2022年12月10日

请问这道题如何解答?拿到题目以后不太有思路

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


请问这道题如何解答?拿到题目以后不太有思路

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笛子_品职助教 · 2022年12月12日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


请问这道题如何解答?拿到题目以后不太有思路

Hello,亲爱的同学!

同学就跟着老师的思路来,相信会有思路的。我们就先看知识点,再看这道题。


我们先看知识点

本题知识点见以下基础讲义


解释一下:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

实际汇率 = 均衡汇率 + 实际利率的利差 — 风险溢价之差。


在本题,risk premium就是通胀,通胀本身是风险溢价的一种。



可以这样理解:

就是说对于实际的交易汇率,我们在均衡的汇率水平上要对利率和风险因素进行区分,


实际利率水平高,说明国家的潜在GDP增速快,就会引起实际汇率升值。

如果风险溢价比较高(在本题是通胀较高),意味着国家的风险很高,会造成实际汇率贬值。




再看这道题

所以A选项不对,因为风险溢价越高,实际汇率越贬值。

所以B选项不对,因为公式里的real 利差,而不是B选项的名义利差。

只有C选项正确,通胀可以理解为风险溢价的一个类型,通胀越高,风险溢价越高,实际汇率越贬值。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

陆佳莹 · 2022年12月12日

A选项不是讲长期均衡价值的吗?和风险溢价有什么关系呢?

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年12月13日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


A选项不是讲长期均衡价值的吗?和风险溢价有什么关系呢?

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward

这句话的含义是,高收益率(high-yield currency )的货币,(它的实际汇率)要在长期均衡价值(的基础上)向上调整(upward)

而我们知道,对于高收益率的货币,如果高收益率是由于高的风险溢价引起的,那么它的实际汇率是需要在长期均衡价值的基础上,向下调整的。所以A不对。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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