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Sam · 2022年11月23日

为什么是carry trade

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201601050100001503

问题如下:

Identify two strategies Delgado should use to earn a positive roll yield. Describe the specific steps needed to execute each strategy.


选项:

解释:


Given that the base currency (the US dollar) is trading at a forward premium, the hedge requires the sale of US dollar forward, resulting in a positive roll yield. The concept of roll yield is very similar to forward rate bias and the carry trade. Here, Delgado is suggesting a strategy to pursue when there is a negative roll yield, because a hedger trading against the forward bias would be buying US dollars at a forward premium instead of selling them. The carry trade strategy of borrowing in low-yield currencies and investing in high-yield currencies is equivalent to trading the forward rate bias, not against it.

中文解析:

基于整个题干的背景可知:本币是EUR,外币是USD。因此担心外币贬值,需要short forward on EUR/USD(也就是解析里面说的base currency应该是USD)

现在美元存在远期溢价,即F>S,所以short forward on EUR/USD的头寸,计算roll yield=F-S/S也会有正的收益。

另外因为美元的利率低于欧元的利率,可以执行carry trade策略,借低利率货币投资于高利率货币,其中低利率货币又叫做forward premium currency,高利率货币又叫做forward discount currency。

老师您好,题干问的是Identify two strategies Delgado should use to earn a positive roll yield. 那不应该是考工具中forward的用法吗,也就是每个月roll in 新的合约。我记得只有roll in 新的合约,然后forward 和 现货的价值有拟合,才会有roll yield 的出现吧。所以跟carry trade 有什么联系呢?

谢谢老师

1 个答案

Hertz_品职助教 · 2022年11月24日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好

本小题对应题干最后一段:With the US dollar currently trading at a forward premium and US interest rates lower than Spanish rates, Delgado recommends trading against the forward rate bias to earn additional return from a positive roll yield.

同学请看上面标粗的部分,D同学已经建议了采取的方法,叫做 trading the forward rate bias.

而我们知道这个策略其实是carry trade策略的另外叫法,这一点在咱们的基础班和强化班中何老师有讲哈,对应内容在框架图的21页。

 

那既然题目问的都是carry trade策略,为什么又提到roll yield。请看上面斜体的部分,他说的是采取carry trade策略想要获得收益,这个收益的来源是positive roll yield。

其实这里的positive roll yield代替的是这一段的前半部分的市场现状“US dollar currently trading at a forward premium and US interest rates lower than Spanish rates”。外币美元是forward premium的,对应的roll yield肯定是为positive的(美元存在远期溢价,即F>S,所以short forward on EUR/USD的头寸,计算roll yield=F-S/S也会有正的收益)。

 

综上来看,这里呢其实直接点名了需要用的是carry trade策略,然后这个为什么会采取这个策略呢,是因为现在美元存在远期溢价并且美元的利率低于欧元利率。其实最终要的是两国的利率差,才是最终导致我们采取该策略的原因。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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