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李梦璐 · 2022年11月15日

利率曲线移动方向

NO.PZ2020021601000013

问题如下:

Ivan Paulinic, an analyst at a large wealth management firm, meets with his supervisor to discuss adding financial institution equity securities to client portfolios.

Paulinic gathers data on three national banks that meet initial selection criteria but require further review.

All of the national banks under consideration primarily make long- term loans and source a significant portion of their funding from retail deposits. Paulinic and the rest of the research team note that the central bank is unwinding a long period of monetary easing as evidenced by two recent increases in the overnight funding rate. Paulinic informs his supervisor that:

Statement 1 Given the recently reported stronger- than- anticipated macroeconomic data, there is an imminent risk that the yield curve will invert.

Statement 2 N- bank is very active in the 30- day reverse repurchase agreement market during times when the bank experiences significant increases in retail deposits.

Based on Statement 1, the net interest margin for the three banks’ most likely will:

选项:

A.

decrease.

B.

remain unchanged.

C.

increase.

解释:

A is correct.

A bank’s net interest margin represents the difference between interest earned on loans and other interest- bearing assets and the level of interest paid on deposits and other interest- bearing liabilities. Banks typically borrow money for shorter terms (retail deposits) and lend to customers for longer periods (mortgages and car loans). If the yield curve unexpectedly inverts, the short- term funding costs will increase and the net interest margin will most likely decrease (not remain unchanged or increase).

老师,这题说宏观经济好转、利率曲线invert。经济好转后利率曲线的invert不是应该是从之前衰退的向下倾斜反转到正常的向上倾斜么?因为经济好转了呀。那这样短端利率小于长端利率,利差扩大。收益率曲线的移动方向理解上麻烦老师讲解下。

1 个答案

袁园_品职助教 · 2022年11月15日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


财务里面不会考我们经济学知识的,这是题目给的条件,我们直接拿来用就可以了。

题目说收益率曲线倒挂,说明长期利率低于短期利率,那么这个bank赚的是长期利率,成本是短期利率,成本大于收入,利润就堪忧了。

经济学中关于收益率曲线inverted的结论是发生在经济衰退的时候,也就是slowdown的阶段。

至于这道题statement 1怎么得出这个结论的,因为不涉及到解题,所以题目没有提供更多信息。如果非要解释的话,可能是报告的非常强的、比预期强很多的宏观数据,可能这个宏观数据已经到顶了,下面就进入slowdown阶段了,所以就会发生收益率曲线的inverted。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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