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皓月 · 2022年11月13日

我虽然做对了

  1. CFA II
  2. Economics Analysis

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ202208160100000304

问题如下：

Which of the recent economic developments discussed by Birol and Pamuk is most likely to lead to a currency crisis?

选项：

A.The banking sector B.The exchange rate system C.The trend in terms of trade and monetary ratios

解释：

Solution

A is correct. Pamuk’s description of growth in the banking sector coupled with short-term funding denominated in foreign currency can lead to a currency crisis. Countries with fixed or partially fixed exchange rates are more susceptible. Broad measures of money such as M2 are likely to be rising (not falling) just prior to a crisis. The terms of trade are favorable for Daltonia.

B is incorrect. Countries with fixed or partially fixed exchange rates are more susceptible.

C is incorrect. Broad measures of money such as M2 are likely to be rising (not falling) just prior to a crisis.

但是不明白为什么B选项是错的？

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1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年11月13日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


但是不明白为什么B选项是错的？


Hello，亲爱的同学！

我们用三元悖论来分析，知识点老师整理好了强化讲义截图，同学就看红框部分内容就好。


资本流动、独立货币政策、固定汇率，不可三者兼得。

如果一个国家采取固定汇率，并且开放资本流动，那么这个国家的货币政策就很难独立，会收到其他国家的影响。

 Countries with fixed or partially fixed exchange rates are more susceptible.

一个容易受到其他国家影响（ more susceptible）的国家，它更容易发生金融危机。因为它无法在本国实行符合自己国家国情需要的货币政策，来挽救危机。


老师举个例子：

中国大陆地区，人民币可以大幅波动，我们国家就可以采取独立的货币政策。

当美元流动性收紧，美元加息的时候，我们国家就不需要跟随加息，而是采取符合国内经济情形的宽松措施。带来的代价是人民币贬值。通过汇率贬值，来吸收海外的冲击。

但是中国香港地区，由于港币是联系汇率制度，香港无法通过港币贬值来吸收海外冲击，当美元加息的时候，为了维持联系汇率制度，港元也需要加息，即使香港当地经济较差，资产价格大幅下跌，出于联系汇率制度的约束，港元也只能跟随美元加息，无法降息。

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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