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庄鑫 · 2022年11月12日

求解

  1. CFA I
  2. Portfolio

NO.PZ2018101901000018

问题如下：

In the 1980s, Japan was viewed by many FMPs as the model economy. Although its growth began to decelerate sharply by 1990, it was not until the mid to late 1990s that FMPs’ GDP forecasts were consistently achieved. By taking several years to adapt their forecasts to the lower growth environment, FMPs exhibited which behavioral bias?

选项：

A.

Mental accounting

B.

Overconfidence

C.

Conservatism

解释：

C is correct.

Conservatism bias results in maintain or only slowly updating views and forecasts despite the presence of new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to update forecasts, despite materially different new information for several years.

如题，先是提到了日本经济是曾经的王者。然后就说虽然1990年初日本就已经出现了经济急剧下滑的迹象，但FMPs们却直到1990年中后期才一致同意预测日本经济已经不行了。

那么在年初到中后期这段时间里，就是因为FMPs们坚定地相信日本经济一定能再创辉煌，所以FMPs们的预测才迟迟无法跟现实状况同步。这不就提现了overconfidence吗？过度相信日本经济一定能好转能重回巅峰。

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1 个答案

pzqa27 · 2022年11月13日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：



不是，虽然经济发展放缓了，但FMP还觉得经济发展的很好，这比较明显的体现了保守性，就是他们仍然保持之前的观点。


过度自信的两种形式:预测过度自信和确定性过度自信。


当fmp对其投资预测的置信区间过窄时，就会出现预测过度。


当fmp分配给结果的概率过高时，就会出现确定性过度自信。

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