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四喜丸子 · 2022年11月12日

请问如何判断出是条件概率

  1. CFA I
  2. Quantitative

NO.PZ2015120604000073

问题如下：

According to the above table, which of the following statements is the most correct?

选项：

A.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.01.

B.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.20.

C.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.50.

解释：

B is correct.

P(good performance of next day/poor performance of today)=0.2, which is shown in the table.

（1）请问老师，这段题目如何判断出表达的是条件概率，而不是二叉树（需要相乘）~


（2）如果题目答案为相乘形式，即第一天市场poor的概率乘以第二天市场good的概率，请问题干一般如何表达？


谢谢老师。

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1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年11月12日

同学你好，

1）题干表格中标明了最后一列就是条件概率，直接应用即可；

2）贝叶斯题目中基本不会有两个非条件概率同时相乘的情况，所以也没有类似的表达。如果想表达第一天poor和第二天good这两件事同时发生，可以用P(第一天poor）乘以P(第二天good|第一天poor)。英文表达为“joint probability”。

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