开发者:上海品职教育科技有限公司 隐私政策详情

应用版本:4.2.11(IOS)｜3.2.5(安卓)APP下载

返回

四喜丸子 · 2022年11月12日

请问如何判断出是条件概率

  1. CFA I
  2. Quantitative

NO.PZ2015120604000073

问题如下：

According to the above table, which of the following statements is the most correct?

选项：

A.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.01.

B.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.20.

C.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.50.

解释：

B is correct.

P(good performance of next day/poor performance of today)=0.2, which is shown in the table.

（1）请问老师，这段题目如何判断出表达的是条件概率，而不是二叉树（需要相乘）~


（2）如果题目答案为相乘形式，即第一天市场poor的概率乘以第二天市场good的概率，请问题干一般如何表达？


谢谢老师。

添加评论
1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年11月12日

同学你好，

1）题干表格中标明了最后一列就是条件概率，直接应用即可；

2）贝叶斯题目中基本不会有两个非条件概率同时相乘的情况，所以也没有类似的表达。如果想表达第一天poor和第二天good这两件事同时发生，可以用P(第一天poor）乘以P(第二天good|第一天poor)。英文表达为“joint probability”。

  • 1

    回答

  • 0

    关注

  • 275

    浏览
相关问题

NO.PZ2015120604000073 问题如下 Accorng to the above table, whiof the following statements is the most correct? A.If performanof toy's bonmarket is poor, the contionprobability of having gooperformanof next y's bonmarket is equto 0.01. B.If performanof toy's bonmarket is poor, the contionprobability of having gooperformanof next y's bonmarket is equto 0.20. C.If performanof toy's bonmarket is poor, the contionprobability of having gooperformanof next y's bonmarket is equto 0.50. B is correct.P(gooperformanof next y/poor performanof toy)=0.2, whiis shown in the table. 04*0.2除以（0.4*0.2+0.4*0.5+0.4*0.3）

2023-02-07 07:24 2 · 回答

NO.PZ2015120604000073 问题如下 Accorng to the above table, whiof the following statements is the most correct? A.If performanof toy's bonmarket is poor, the contionprobability of having gooperformanof next y's bonmarket is equto 0.01. B.If performanof toy's bonmarket is poor, the contionprobability of having gooperformanof next y's bonmarket is equto 0.20. C.If performanof toy's bonmarket is poor, the contionprobability of having gooperformanof next y's bonmarket is equto 0.50. B is correct.P(gooperformanof next y/poor performanof toy)=0.2, whiis shown in the table. 这道题不是说在一个事件发生的前提下，这个事件发生吗？不应该用P(B|A)=P(AB)/P(A)这个公式吗？就是0.2/0.4

2023-02-05 23:06 1 · 回答

老师可以写一下具体计算过程吗？

2020-11-10 17:47 1 · 回答

不应该是0.4*0.2吗？

2019-09-03 00:26 1 · 回答