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pacermiller31 · 2022年11月11日

问题没大理解，不需要考虑第1-5年的现金流么？

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NO.PZ201601050300000210

问题如下：

10. Based upon Exhibit 1 and Assumptions 1 and 2, the value of Property B using the discounted cash flow method, assuming a five-year holding

period, is closest to:

选项：

A.

£4,708,700.

B.

£5,035,600.

C.

£5,050,900.

解释：

B is correct.

The value of Property B using the discounted cash flow method is £5,035,600.

The value using the discounted cash flow method is based on the present value of the net operating income (NOI) and the estimated property resale price.

Calculate NOI (constant during five-year holding period from Assumption 2)

NOI = rental income (at full occupancy) + other income – vacancy and collection loss – property management fee – other operating expenses

NOI = £610,000 + £183,000 – £61,000 – £35,000 – £234,000 = £463,000

Estimate property value at end of five years:

NOI starting in year 6 is 20% higher due to lease rollovers (from Assumption 2)

NOI starting in year 6 = £463,000 × 1.20 = £555,600

Terminal cap rate (given) = 11%

Applying the terminal cap rate yields a property value of £5,050,909 (= £555,600/0.11)

Find the present value of the expected annual NOI and the estimated property resale value using the given discount rate of 9.25%:

N = 5

FV = £5,050,909

PMT = £463,000

I = 9.25

Solving for PV, the current value of the property is estimated to be £5,034,643, or £5,034,600 rounded.

考点：现金流折现法估计房地产价值

解析：可以按照以下思路进行计算，注意计算terminal value需要使用terminal cap rate, 而不是going-in cap rate.

Step 1: 计算NOI

net operating income (NOI) = rental income + other income –  vacancy and collection loss –  property management costs

NOI = £610,000 + £183,000 –  £61,000 –  £35,000 –  £234,000 = £463,000

Step 2: 计算终值

第五年末的终值 terminal value = £463,000*(1+20%)/11%= £5,050,909

注意这里 1.相当于投资期结束卖给下一个投资者的价值的折现，所以这里用terminal cap rate 2 .从第六年开始，NOI增长20%。

Step 3：直接用计算器CF计算value，I/Y=9.25%, N = 5, FV = £5,050,909, PMT = £463,000, => CPT PV = £5,034,643，约算成£5,034,600.

根据讲义不是应该考虑1-5年现金流折现，再用终值折现后求和么？感谢解答

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Lucky_品职助教 · 2022年11月14日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


是一样的哦，本题第一步先算了每年现金流，其中最后一年的现金流属于永续年金，所以第二步计算了终值，第三步将所有现金流进行折现求和。这也是所有资产估值的方法：将未来现金流折现求和。

----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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