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Cooljas · 2022年10月27日

为啥会从公式 1 变到公式 2啊?

NO.PZ2020012005000040

问题如下:

Suppose that F1 and F2 are the futures prices on the same commodity with maturities t1 and t2 with t2 > t1. Storage costs are negligible. The risk-free rate is R for all maturities. Use an arbitrage argument to show that:

F2F1(1+R)t2t1F_2\leq F_1(1+R)^{t_2-t_1}

选项:

解释:

A trader can enter into a long futures contract with maturity t1 and a short futures contract with maturity t2. At time t1 F1 is borrowed and the asset is bought for F1. The loan is repaid at time t2 and the asset is sold for F2.

The cash flows are

Time t1:F1+F1=0t_1: -F_1 + F_1 = 0, and

Time t2:F2F1(1+R)t2t1t_2: F_2 - F_1(1 + R)^{t_2 - t_1}

This simple strategy is certain to lead to a profit at time t2 if:

F2>F1(1+R)t2t1F_2 > F_1(1 + R)^{t_2 - t_1}

Thus, the prices will adjust such that:

F2F1(1+R)t2t1F_2 \leq F_1(1 + R)^{t_2 - t_1}



1 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2022年10月27日

同学你好,这里不是公式的推导,它的意思是1式中F2 大于理论值的情况会带来套利,所以套利的人多了之后就会使F价格被打下来,小于理论值,这时套利机会就消失了。

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