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YiGao · 2022年09月11日

为什么不选A

NO.PZ2022052301000011

问题如下:

Arzac interviews Christine Torok, who has more than 20 years of experience as an equity analyst following the banking industry. Torok considers herself to be one of the most sought after analysts in the market, ranking in the top five analysts in the industry year after year. Her earnings forecasts have tended to be within 1% of actual results. She attributes the accuracy to her firm’s highly complex forecast models, including sensitivity analysis and the confirmation of similar information sourced from multiple databases. She is regularly asked to speak at investment conferences and on TV to make comments on financial securities.

Given Torok’s analysis of the banking industry, she least likely exhibited which of the following behavioral biases?

选项:

A.

Self-attribution

B.

Overconfidence

C.

Illusion of control

解释:

Self-attribution bias is a bias in which people take personal credit for successes and attribute failures to external factors outside the individual’s control. There is no evidence she takes personal credit for her success. Torok actually credits the firm’s financial models for the accuracy of the forecasts.

B is incorrect because Torok is likely overconfident given that she considers herself to be one of the top five analysts in the market and being asked to speak at banking conferences and on TV. She also sources additional information similar in nature, so it is unlikely to increase the accuracy of her forecast but instead reinforces her confidence in that forecast.

C is incorrect because Torok may have been subject to the illusion of control due to using highly complex forecast models. Excess of information cannot eliminate the risk in a model or the modeling process.


Self-attribution 不就是 overconfidence bias的一种吗?

1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2022年09月13日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


1

关于 self-attribution, 其实严谨的说,是和 illusion of knowledge 一样,都会造成 overconfidence bias

Illusion of knowledge and self-attribution biases contribute to the overconfidence bias

即是 overconfidence 的其中一个原因

2

self-attribution bias 包含两方面:成功都是自己的功劳 "take credit for successes",失败都是别人的问题 "assign responsibility for failures."

但是题干并没有提到 Torok 将成功归因于自己,而是归因于复杂的预测模型等,所以反映的是 illusion of control 而不是 self-attribution bias

3

关于 self-attribution,建议同学再看一下课后题第 11 题

对应案例背景,第一段的倒数第二句话

"she has a tendency to be quick to blame and rarely gives credit to team members for success"

她有一种快速指责的倾向,很少将成功归功于团队成员

这才反映的是 self-attribution

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