However, the US equity market has experienced a meaningful string of favorable inflation and productivity surprises for past several years.-有问必答-品职教育专注CFA ESG FRM CPA 考研等财经培训课程

However, the US equity market has experienced a meaningful string of favorable inflation and productivity surprises for past several years.

NO.PZ2018103102000003

问题如下：

At the time of purchase, Jacques used CAPM to estimate a required return for PZ by incorporating an unadjusted historical equity risk premium estimate for the US equity market. However, the US equity market has experienced a meaningful string of favorable inflation and productivity surprises for past several years. In order to mitigate that concern, the historical equity risk premium Jacques used as an estimate of the forward-looking equity risk premium should be:

选项：

adjusted upward

adjusted downward

left unchanged

解释：

B is correct.

考点：Equity risk premium

解析：B是正确的。一系列有利的通胀和经济增长的惊喜可能会带来一系列高回报，从而提高股票风险溢价的历史平均估值。为了计算得到合理的要求回报率，分析师应下调历史的股票风险溢价。

"However, the US equity market has experienced a meaningful string of favorable inflation and productivity surprises for past several years." 老师这句话的意思里，有表明Risk free上升的含义吗，我理解的是risk free rate上升了，使ERP下降，因此要上调ERP

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：

同学你好，这句话虽然提及了通胀率，但是并没有明确的说通胀导致无风险利率上升，而是说通胀导致整个社会的生产效率提升从而整个社会投资的实际收益率（Rm）上升了的意思哦~~

因为这门课不是经济学，所以在做相关判断的时候，只需要根据题目给的条件做最直观的判断即可，至于通胀和无风险收益率的关系，本题没有明确提及，我们就不需要考虑

因为Rm升高了，而Rf题目没有说有变化所以默认不变，因而ERP =Rm-Rf变大了。因为这种历史上的高收益（高Rm)是不可持续的，所以对未来进行估计的时候，需要考虑该因素，进而调低ERP

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However, the US equity market has experienced a meaningful string of favorable inflation and productivity surprises for past several years.

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