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WINWIN8 · 2022年08月21日

这题可以这么做吗？

  1. CFA II
  2. Corporate Issuers

NO.PZ2016012005000029

问题如下：

The dividend policy of Berkshire Gardens Inc. can be represented by a gradual adjustment to a target dividend payout ratio. Last year Berkshire had earnings per share of $3.00 and paid a dividend of $0.60 a share. This year it estimates earnings per share will be $4.00. Find its dividend per share for this year if it has a 25 percent target payout ratio and uses a five-year period to adjust its dividend.

选项：

A.

$0.68.

B.

$0.80.

C.

$0.85.

解释：

A is correct.

Expected dividend = Previous dividend + (Expected earnings ×Target payout ratio – Previous dividend) × Adjustment factor)=$0.60+（$4×0.25-$0.6）×0.2=$0.68

解题和书里的公式都是算每年均摊的div然后往上加。我第一次看这类型题的时候是这么解的 第五年目标eraning (4)=去年earning(3) x (1+g) 五次方，然后算出（1+g)再去乘去年的div=今年div。 这样哪里不对呢？

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王琛_品职助教 · 2022年08月22日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


1

同学的算法，暗含了一个前提：earning 和 dividend 都以 g 的速度每年增长

但题目背景中，并没有给出这个前提呀

2

而且关于 stable dividend policy 的本质，是短期的盈利水平可能有上下波动或者周期，但是根据公式计算的分红，是稳步上升的。("independent of cyclical upward or downward spikes in earnings")

所以短期盈利水平的上下波动不会影响分红的数值，即 stable dividend

3

同学可以看一下原版书 P57 的图示

虽然 EPS (实线) 有高有低，但是 DPS (虚线) 是稳中有升的

但是按照同学的算法，分红是和 earnings 强相关的，earnigns 的高低，决定 g 的大小，从而又决定了分红的水平，这就不符合 stable dividend policy 的本质了

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