同学你好,谢谢你非常好的提问。
CDS这里的long方和short方其实说起来挺迷惑的,非常容易绕晕。但是关键从“保险”或者“credit risk”这个角度理解就很方便了。
先看看原版书上是如何对CDS定义的:
A credit default swap is a derivative contract between two parties,
a credit protection buyer and credit protection seller, in which the buyer makes a series of cash payments to the seller and receives a promise of compensation for credit losses resulting from the default—
that is, a pre-defined credit event—of a third party.
可见,protection buyer会从信用质量变差这件事中获利,因为会收到赔付。
protection seller会从信用质量变好这件事中获利,因为赚取了premium,而不用赔付。
CDS这块比较迷惑人的地方,就是确定CDS合约的long方和short方。
关于这块,原版书中有这样的解释:
Because of these CDS characteristics, there is potential confusion
regarding which party is long and which is short.
Normally, we think of buyers as being long and sellers as being short,
but in the CDS world, it is the opposite. Because the credit protection buyer promises to make a series of future payments, it is regarded as being short.
This is consistent with the fact that in the financial world, “shorts” are said to benefit when things go badly.
Credit quality is based on the underlying debt obligation, and when it improves, the credit protection seller benefits.
When credit quality deteriorates, the credit protection buyer benefits. Hence, the CDS industry views the credit protection seller as the long and the buyer as the short.
This point can lead to confusion because we effectively say the credit protection buyer is short and the credit protection seller is long.
简单的说,CDS合约中,买保险的一方,实际上转移出去了credit risk,他是不承担credit risk的;而在金融合约中,若标的物价格下跌,或者表现变坏,投资者能获取利润,这样的头寸其实是做空,即short。因此买保险的一方,在信用质量变差的时候,他们能赚钱。因此他们的头寸可以说是short CDS。
CDS合约中,卖出去保险的一方,实际上是承担了credit risk。在金融交易中,如果标的物的价格上涨,或者表现变好的时候,投资者赚钱,这时的头寸是做多,即long。保险公司卖出去保险,承担了credit risk,但是由于信用质量变好,他会盈利,因为赚取保费而不用赔付,所以卖出保险这个行为(承担credit risk)其实是long CDS。
关于到底是long、还是short CDS,原版书和何老师的讲解都用的挺谨慎的,视频中很少用到头寸的方向,绝大多数用到的是保险买卖方向。原版书也一样,而且只要出现了long和short CDS这样的字眼,都会标识是protection seller还是protection buyer。
在视频中的CDS交易策略这里,何老师是说了long CDS,来表示protection buyer。这里确实有点问题,但是后面又补充到了long CDS是protection buyer行为,等同于short bond,转移出credit risk。其实,这里何老师表达的意思就是买保险。
所以关键,还是先明确:谁是“保险的买方/转移出信用风险,不承担credit risk”;谁是“保险的卖方/承担信用风险,承担credit risk”。
这里其实有点绕,解题的时候,可以有这样的逻辑:先判断信用质量是变好还是变坏(这里假设变坏)→ 资产表现变坏的情况,做空资产可以赚取,即short可以赚取,那么直接short CDS就好了。
回过头来想要验证上面思路,可以这么看:信用质量变坏,买保险可以赚取,买保险实际上是转移出credit risk,即做空了credit risk,所以买保险等同于即short了credit risk,即为short 了CDS.
在分析的时候,抓住“保险的方向/买卖”,把CDS的标的当做credit risk,Long CDS相当于承担credit risk,当credit risk变好时赚钱;short CDS相当于转移credit risk,Credit risk变坏时赚钱;这样分析起来就会更加明晰。