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小雨Rainie · 2022年08月17日

预期通胀率的扩大为什么会加大两国的风险溢价之差?

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


C选项:预期通胀率的扩大为什么会加大两国的风险溢价之差?

3 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年11月08日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


请问这个知识点在2023年5月考纲上吗?


Hello,亲爱的同学!在考纲的,通胀率是风险溢价的一种。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

Clio · 2022年11月08日

请问这个知识点在2023年5月考纲上吗?

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年08月18日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


C选项:预期通胀率的扩大为什么会加大两国的风险溢价之差?

风险溢价有很多种,通胀率是风险溢价的一种,因为通胀也是一种风险。

结合本题,本题中的risk premium是指通胀预期。



本题知识点在基础班讲义67页,考点是The Impact of Balance of Payments Flows


解释一下:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

实际汇率 = 均衡汇率 + 实际利率的利差 — 风险溢价之差。


在本题,risk premium就是通胀,通胀本身是风险溢价的一种。




可以这样理解:

就是说对于实际的交易汇率,我们在均衡的汇率水平上要对利率和风险因素进行区分,


实际利率水平高,说明国家的潜在GDP增速快,就会引起实际汇率升值。

如果风险溢价比较高(在本题是通胀较高),意味着国家的风险很高,会造成实际汇率贬值。


强化班的话,是在第9页,BOP对汇率的影响,红框部分。




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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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