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花卷喵 · 2022年08月07日

negative skewness suggests those surprises are more likely to be negative (than positive).

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202110140100000406

问题如下:

Based on Concern 2, the Factor 1 strategy is most likely to:

选项:

A.be favored by risk-averse investors. B.generate surprises in the form of negative returns. C.have return data that line up tightly around a trend line.

解释:

B is correct.

The distribution of Factor 1 returns exhibits excess kurtosis and negative skewness (relative to the normal distribution). The excess kurtosis implies that these strategies are more likely to generate surprises, meaning extreme returns, whereas the negative skewness suggests those surprises are more likely to be negative (than positive).

A is incorrect because risk-averse investors are more likely to prefer distribution properties such as positive skew (higher probability of positive returns) and lower to moderate kurtosis (lower probability of extreme negative surprises). The distribution of Factor 1 returns exhibits excess kurtosis and negative skewness.

C is incorrect because the distribution of Factor 1 returns exhibits excess kurtosis and negative skewness. The joint distribution of such returns is rarely multivariate normal—so, typically the means and variances of these returns and the correlations between them are insufficient to describe the joint return distribution. In other words, the return data do not line up tightly around a trend line because of fat tails and outliers.

这句话该怎么理解?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年08月07日

同学你好,

负偏代表return的分布在左侧偏,由于左侧代表亏损,negative skewness会导致出现极端损失的概率比较大。

所以如果有极端情况出现(surprise),大概率是亏损而不会是盈利。