老师，这两个地方提到inflation预期的时候一个是说顺周期，一个是逆周期，这个是矛盾的吗
源_品职助教 · 2022年07月27日
嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：
这两句话都是原版书的原话，，
一个说是顺周期的，这个结论是基于，周期模式是已经知晓的情况下（Because cyclical pattern of inflation is known）。
另一个说是逆周期，是介于“horizon structure”这个假设。因为有了这个假设前提，所以也不算矛盾。
这两类假设的区别，原版书也做出了解释，供你参考
Because the cyclical pattern of inflation is well known, inflation expectations will also be procyclical.
It is important, however, to differentiate inflation expectations by horizon.
Very long-term inflation expectations should be virtually unaffected by cyclical fluctuations provided investors maintain confidence in the central bank’s target.
Short horizon expectations will tend to have about the same amplitude as actual inflation.
Inflation, and therefore inflation expectations, over intermediate horizons will be a blend of the different phases of the current and subsequent cycles.
Hence, the amplitude of expectations will decline with horizon—again, provided investors do not lose confidence in the central bank’s target.
----------------------------------------------加油吧，让我们一起遇见更好的自己！