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december · 2022年07月24日

可以解释一下选项吗

NO.PZ2016072602000031

问题如下:

Counterparty A is an American company with manufacturing operations in Indonesia and its main customers in the United States, while counterparty B is an American company that manufactures its goods domestically and exports solely to Indonesia. Which one of the following transactions with either counterparty will be a wrong-way exposure for a bank?

选项:

A.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD cross-currency swap between the bank and counterparty A where the bank is USD interest rate receiver

B.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD currency option sold by the bank to counterparty A for it to buy IDR at a certain rate

C.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD cross-currency swap between the bank and counterparty B where the bank is USD interest rate receiver

D.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD currency option bought by the bank from counterparty B for the bank to buy IDR at a certain rate

解释:

C is correct. This is an example of a wrong-way exposure, where a gain on the instrument for the bank is associated with a higher probability of default (PD) for its counterparty. If the IDR depreciates, counterparty A will make a profit because its costs will go down in dollars; conversely for counterparty B, because its dollar revenues will decrease. Under c., the company pays USD and receives IDR. This transaction will create a loss if the IDR depreciates. In this situation, counterparty B will lose money as well on its exports. Hence, this is a wrong-way trade.

两个问题 1.能否重新解释一下a不远的原因 2.期权交易是否不涉及敞口的增加还是减少

2 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2023年12月26日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


汇率都是相对的。A选项说Bank是 USD interest rate receiver,也就是银行收取USD利息(USD升值就会导致Bank赚钱,USD贬值导致Bank亏钱)。


IDR贬值就是意味着USD相对于IDR在升值,随着USD升值,Bank的利润增加,而A公司在USD升值的时候,它的美元收入在升值,所以A公司情况很好不会违约


如果IDR升值,那么意味着USD相对于IDR在贬值,那么此时Bank存在亏损,那么A公司即便违约也不会影响Bank。(A公司违约反而更好,bank的亏损不需要兑现了)


所以无论贬值还是升值,A选项对于bank都是right way risk。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

李坏_品职助教 · 2022年07月25日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


A里面,随着USD汇率上涨,Bank的利润增加,此时交易对手A公司在USD升值的时候,货物从印尼卖往美国换来的美元收入在升值,所以A公司不太会违约。此时bank的利润增加对应的是A公司的利好,这个不属于wrong way risk。wrong way risk是指bank的利润增加对应A公司变差。


另外,期权不涉及exposure的变化。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

水瓶公主 · 2023年12月26日

如果IDR贬值呢?A公司违约概率增加,就是wrong wayrisk

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