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Grace Yu · 2022年07月23日

C04为什么是D04+35.77(即2.431+35.77)?这一期现金流是怎么得出来的?

NO.PZ2018062002000166

问题如下:

Current price per share $20

Current annual dividend per share $2

Annual dividend growth rate for Years 14: 5%

Annual dividend growth rate for year 5 onwards: 3%

Required rate of return 10%

Based on the above information, calculate the intrinsic value of the stock by using the DDM model. The stock is most likely:

选项:

A.

undervalued.

B.

overvalued.

C.

fairly valued.

解释:

A is correct.

The current price of €20 is less than the intrinsic value of €31.56;therefore, the stock appears to be currently undervalued. According to the two-stage dividend discount model:

V0=t=1nD0(1+gs)t(1+r)t+Vn(1+r)nV_0=\sum_{t=1}^n\frac{{\displaystyle D_0(1+g_s)}^t}{{\displaystyle(1+r)}^t}+\frac{V_n}{{(1+r)}^n} and Vn=Dn+1rgLV_n=\frac{D_{n+1}}{r-g_L}

D1 = €2 × 1.05 = €2.1

D2 = €2 × (1.05)2 = €2.205

D3 = €2 × (1.05)3 = €2.31525

D4 = €2 × (1.05)4 = €2.431

D5 = [€2 × (1.05)4](1.03) = €2.503

V4 = €2.503/(0.1 – 0.03) = €35.77

V 0 =31.56(which is greater than the current price of €20)

考点:Multi-stage Model

计算器繁荣属于步奏如下:

CF0=0, C01=2.1,F01=1,C02=2.205,F02=1,C03=2.31525,F03=1,C04=2.431+35.77 F04=1 ,CPT--NPV, I=10

C04为什么是D04+35.77(即2.431+35.77)?这一期现金流是怎么得出来的?

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2022年07月23日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好,请看解析中这个部分的解释

“D4 = €2 × (1.05)4 = €2.431

D5 = [€2 × (1.05)4](1.03) = €2.503

V4 = €2.503/(0.1 – 0.03) = €35.77”

第四年年末除了有第四年的分红这笔现金流,还有公司进入永续增长后的终值折现到第四年年末的V4这笔现金流(题干中说“Annual dividend growth rate for year 5 onwards: 3%”意思就是从第5年开始,公司的分红永远按照3%的增长率进行增长了。所以公司从第5年进入永续增长,D5用GGM模型折现到第四年年末就可以得到公司终值V4),所以第四年年末的CF04=D4+ V4

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