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Chasechoi · 2022年07月22日

公式

NO.PZ2020012201000007

问题如下:

Alena,CFA, was updating her firm’s projections for US equity returns.If she believed that in the long run that the US labor input would grow by 0.9% perannum and labor productivity by 1.5%, that inflation would be 2.1%, that the dividend yield would be 2.25%, and that there would be no further growth in P/E, what is likely to have been her baseline projection for continuously compounded long-term US equity returns?

选项:

A.

6.75%

B.

5.5%

C.

5.85%

解释:

A is correct

解释:

在长期,一国股票市场的增长率等于该国GDP的增长率(本题P/E增长率为0也证实了这一点)。那么本题就等于计算该国GDP的增长率。

Her baseline projection is likely to have been 6.75% = 0.9% + 1.5% + 2.1% + 2.25%

依照公式可得:. 6.75% = 0.9% + 1.5% + 2.1% + 2.25%

请问是哪个公式,为啥要加股息率?

2 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2022年09月27日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


CME中把GDP增长部分归因于了"capital appreciation"的部分,

分红属于INCOME RETURN


从长期看,的确有股价的变化capital appreciation)约等于GDP增长率。

但是分红属于INCOME RETURN,而非capital appreciation

所以长期它会影响股权收益的增长率。

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源_品职助教 · 2022年07月22日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:



根据下图第一行和第二行公示。

其中第二行的公式反应的是第一行中的一项。

因为股权收益率本身就可以分为第一行的两部分。

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坏呼呼嘿嘿 · 2022年09月27日

股票市场增长率等于GDP增长率,这里面已经包含分红了吧,是不是分红都不影响增长率吧?

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