NO.PZ201803130100000601
问题如下：
Select, for each of Armstrong’s three goals, which sub-portfolio module from Exhibit 1 Abbott should choose in constructing a portfolio. Justify each selection.
选项：
解释：
■ Module C should be chosen for Goal 1, Module B
should be chosen for Goal 2, and Module D should be chosen for Goal 3.
■ The module that should be selected for each goal is the one that offers the highest return given the time horizon
and required probability of success. The module that should be selected for
each goal is the one that offers the highest return given the time horizon
and required probability of success. For Goal 1, which has a time horizon of five
years and a required probability of success of 85%, Module C should be chosen
because its 4.4% expected return is higher than the expected returns of all the
other modules. Similarly, for Goal 2, which has a time horizon of 10 years and
a required probability of success of 99%, Module B should be chosen because its
2.2% expected return is higher than the expected returns of all the other
modules. Finally, for Goal 3, which has a time horizon of 25 years and a
required probability of success of 75%, Module D should be chosen because its
7.5% expected return is higher than the expected returns of all the other
modules.
这道题没有说要求的回报率多少，只说了金额（比如：Goal 1需要5million），是怎么选出来答案的？
Goal 1: An 85% chance of purchasing a vacation home for $5 million in five years.
Goal 2: A 99% chance of being able to maintain their current annual expenditures of $100,000 for the next 10 years, assuming annual inflation of 3% from Year 2 onward.
Goal 3: A 75% chance of being able to donate $10 million to charitable foundations in 25 years. Abbott suggests using a goals-based approach to construct a portfolio. He develops a set of sub-portfolio modules, presented in Exhibit 1. Abbott suggests investing any excess capital in Module A.
