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Captain America · 2022年07月10日

请问B答案如何判别的?

NO.PZ2017092702000100

问题如下:

An analyst develops the following capital market projections.

Assuming the returns of the asset classes are described by normal distributions, which of the following statements is correct?

选项:

A.

Bonds have a higher probability of a negative return than stocks.

B.

On average, 99% of stock returns will fall within two standard deviations of the mean.

C.

The probability of a bond return less than or equal to 3% is determined using a Z-score of 0.25.

解释:

A is correct.

The chance of a negative return falls in the area to the left of 0% under a standard normal curve. By standardizing the returns and standard deviations of the two assets, the likelihood of either asset experiencing a negative return may be determined: Z-score (standardized value) = (X – μ)/σ Z-score for a bond return of 0% = (0 – 2)/5 = –0.40. Z-score for a stock return of 0% = (0 – 10)/15 = –0.67. For bonds, a 0% return falls 0.40 standard deviations below the mean return of 2%. In contrast, for stocks, a 0% return falls 0.67 standard deviations below the mean return of 10%. A standard deviation of 0.40 is less than a standard deviation of 0.67. Negative returns thus occupy more of the left tail of the bond distribution than the stock distribution. Thus, bonds are more likely than stocks to experience a negative return.

可以把B答案翻译一下吗?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年07月11日

同学你好,

B选项意为:在一个描述return的正态分布中,99%的return会落在均值周围2个标准差的范围。

这个描述是错误的,根据正态分布下的结论,95%的return会落在均值周围1.96个标准差的范围(有的题目也会说大约是2个);而99%的return会落在均值周围2.58个标准差的范围(有的题目也会说大约是3个)。



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2022-09-21 07:28 1 · 回答

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2022-09-09 22:07 1 · 回答

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