NO.PZ202206070100000403
问题如下:
Based on how the Taylor rule is applied by Li’s team, the central bank’s estimated optimal short-term rate is closest to:选项:
A.2.8%. B.1.5%. C.2.0%.解释:
Solution
C is correct. The Taylor rule sets the optimal short-term rate as
Neutral rate + 0.5 × (GDP growth forecast – GDP growth trend) + 0.5 × (Inflation forecast – Inflation target)
Applying numbers from Exhibit 3,
2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5 × (2.0% - 1.0%) + 0.5 × (1.5% - 3.5%).
A is incorrect. The difference between the earnings trend and forecast is included with each difference between forecast and trend being weighted by 0.333.
2.8% = 2.5% + 0.333 × (2.0% – 1.0%) + 0.333 × (1.5% -– 3.5%) + 0.333 × (4.0% – 2.0%)
B is incorrect. The inflation and GDP adjustments are not multiplied by 0.5.
本题考查的是泰勒公式
C是正确的。泰勒规则将最优短期利率设为
中性利率+ 0.5 × (GDP增长预测- GDP增长趋势)+ 0.5 ×(通胀预测-通胀目标)
2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5××(2.0% - 1.0%)+ 0.5(1.5% - 3.5%)。
A是不正确的。收益趋势和预测之间的差异被包括在内,预测和趋势之间的每个差异被错误地使用了0.333加权。
B是不正确的。通胀和GDP的调整没有乘以0.5。
如题