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Jingwen · 2022年07月02日

关于选项C

  1. CFA II
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2018091706000064

问题如下：

Beauregard has concerns about the firm’s experiences during currency crises. She recalls reading a study produced by the IMF that an impending currency crisis is signaled by numerous economic variables. She makes the following statements with regard to some of these variables:

1. Trade balances exhibit substantial decline prior to the crisis.

2. A country has distinctive economic growth patterns ahead of the crisis.

3. Inflation is significantly higher in the pre-crisisperiod.

Which of Beauregard’s statements regarding a currency crisis is the most accurate?


选项：

A.

Statement 3

B.

Statement 2

C.

Statement 1

解释：

Statement 3 is the most accurate. Inflation tends to be significantly higher in pre-crisisperiods compared with tranquil periods.

解析：A选项最准确的。与平静时期相比，危机前时期的通胀率往往要高得多。

C选项错误，the terms of trade而非Trade balances下降。如果是Trade balances大幅下降，表明危机已经发生，就不是危机的信号了。

B选项错误，因为危机发生前，经济不会有什么额外的增长。

哎呀，做有的题目的时候，会说到，这些迹象已经是crisis了。那C这个high inflation不是在已经crisis的情况下会发生的吗？还是这个是一个预兆。

感觉这些好混乱，有没有整理的呀？

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笛子_品职助教 · 2022年07月03日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


哎呀，做有的题目的时候，会说到，这些迹象已经是crisis了。那C这个high inflation不是在已经crisis的情况下会发生的吗？还是这个是一个预兆。

高通胀既会发生在危机前，也会发生在危机中。高通胀并不必然触发危机。比如现在的美国就是高通胀，但是并不是危机。


 Trade balances exhibit substantial decline prior to the crisis.

贸易平衡显著下降，往往是资本在大幅流出，这时候已经是危机中了。贸易平衡显著下降会引起本币在短时间内大幅贬值，本币大幅贬值就是一种危机。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！

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