尾号46那题题干与此题较相似，不过答案不同
问题如下图：
选项：
A. 
B. 
C. 
D. 
解释：
orange品职答疑助手 · 2018年03月29日
同学你好，46题里面用的garch模型预测波动率，是波动率的均值覆归，所以才得到了那个结论。而本题是天然气价格的均值覆归，它价格越来越回归到长期均值水平，那么它的波动率就会越来越小
Flora · 2018年05月10日
这个回答并不理解。如果本题如果中长期的价格都很高呢，而短期价格很低，均值复归的话，VaR会大于原始的VaR啊
orange品职答疑助手 · 2018年05月10日
VaR的大小等同于看波动率的大小。按同学你说的情况，它之后每天的价格会越来越升高，直到覆归至中长期价格水平，所以它的波动率会越来越小，也就是后来每天的VaR越来越小
NO.PZ2016062402000043 问题如下 Assume we calculate a one-week VAR for a naturgposition rescaling the ily Vusing the square root of time rule. Let us now assume thwe termine the true gpriprocess to be mereverting anrecalculate the VAR. Whiof the following statements is true? The recalculateVwill less ththe originVAR. The recalculateVwill equto the originVAR. The recalculateVwill greater ththe originVAR. There is no necessary relationship between the recalculateVanthe originVAR. With mereversion, the volatility grows more slowly ththe square root of time. σ 周=根号下5*σ 天，σ 周 σ 天，1-σ变大，在return的正态分布图上，VaR条线就往左移，面积就变小。这么理解对吗？
NO.PZ2016062402000043 问题如下 Assume we calculate a one-week VAR for a naturgposition rescaling the ily Vusing the square root of time rule. Let us now assume thwe termine the true gpriprocess to be mereverting anrecalculate the VAR. Whiof the following statements is true? The recalculateVwill less ththe originVAR. The recalculateVwill equto the originVAR. The recalculateVwill greater ththe originVAR. There is no necessary relationship between the recalculateVanthe originVAR. With mereversion, the volatility grows more slowly ththe square root of time. 不太明白题干意思，以及问什么
NO.PZ2016062402000043 The recalculateVwill equto the originVAR. The recalculateVwill greater ththe originVAR. There is no necessary relationship between the recalculateVanthe originVAR. With mereversion, the volatility grows more slowly ththe square root of time. 均值复归既可以向上也可以向下回归，为什么这道题就能肯定是向下呢？ OriginVaR=weekly VResceleVaR=根号7 * 1天的V怎么比较大小呢 烦请老师解答，谢谢！
NO.PZ2016062402000043 Assume we calculate a one-week Vfor a naturgposition rescaling the ily Vusing the square root of time rule. Let us now assume thwe termine the true gpriprocess to mereverting anrecalculate the VAR. Whiof the following statements is true? The recalculateVwill less ththe originVAR. The recalculateVwill equto the originVAR. The recalculateVwill greater ththe originVAR. There is no necessary relationship between the recalculateVanthe originVAR. With mereversion, the volatility grows more slowly ththe square root of time. 老师，我不太理解这个题的含义，可否画图或公式帮忙一下？
Assume we calculate a one-week Vfor a naturgposition rescaling the ily Vusing the square root of time rule. Let us now assume thwe termine the true gpriprocess to mereverting anrecalculate the VAR. Whiof the following statements is true? The recalculateVwill less ththe originVAR. The recalculateVwill equto the originVAR. The recalculateVwill greater ththe originVAR. There is no necessary relationship between the recalculateVanthe originVAR. With mereversion, the volatility grows more slowly ththe square root of time. 你好，我对题目中有一点比较疑惑。因为我们知道天然气有季节性的特点，冬天的时候波动性高，夏天波动性低。题目中没有明确是哪个季节，如果题目中是夏季，Var算出来就低，乘上根号下T得出的长期Var就偏低。如果是冬季，Var算出来高，乘根号下T算出来值就篇高。所以我觉的应该选